April 12, 2026, Intraday Analysis

The above analysis is based on public data and statistical models and does not constitute direct investment advice. Trading should be conducted in combination with real-time market conditions and your personal risk tolerance.

�� Bitcoin BTCUSDT Direction Entry Point Stop Loss Point Take Profit Target 1 Take Profit Target 2
Short (Main) 71,800 – 72,200 73,000 70,800 69,500
Long (Oversold Rebound) 70,500 – 70,800 70,000 71,800 72,500

�� Ethereum ETHUSDT Direction Entry Point Stop Loss Point Take Profit Target 1 Take Profit Target 2
Short (Main) 2,220 – 2,250 2,290 2,150 2,080
Long (Defensive/Conservative) 2,140 – 2,160 2,100 2,200 2,230

I. Current Events & Politics:
US-Iran negotiations break down, geopolitical risk heats up — Event Impact Interpretation

After the third round of US-Iran talks ended, no agreement was reached, and both sides have serious disagreements;
US Vice President Vance left Pakistan.
The blockade at the Strait of Hormuz will continue; crude oil and safe-haven assets are supported, and risk appetite in the crypto market remains under pressure.
Iran says “strait passage requires permission,” and the US military “creates conditions to clear mines,” increasing the risk of military confrontation; if a conflict breaks out, it will trigger a global safe-haven rush, putting short-term pressure on crypto.
Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations are delayed, tariffs rise to 245%; tighter liquidity expectations suppress high-beta assets.
Overall: Geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, the macro outlook is bearish, and the crypto market continues to be weak in the short term.

II. Technical Analysis (Multi-timeframe + Complete Indicators)

Bitcoin BTCUSDT (Current Price 71,847)
Timeframe MA BOLL MACD KDJ RSI

Signal
1H: Price breaks below all short-term moving averages; it breaks below the lower band at 71,669, indicating oversold. MACD histogram is -166.4; DIF forms a death cross with DEA; K=26.9, J=24.4, with a low-level death cross at 20.7 (severely oversold). In the short term, oversold conditions exist and there is demand for a rebound.

4H: MA701,249#美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 has already been broken. Price is close to the lower band at 70,597. MACD histogram is -164.9; DIF=-58.4; DEA=106.4; the death cross deepens. K=30.7, J=3.2 (extremely oversold). 24.2 indicates shorts are dominant, but oversold is severe. Daily: MA7=71,250; price has already fallen below MA7. The midline is 69,183 and the lower band is 64,540. MACD histogram is 581.1 (positive column shortening); DIF 720.6 > DEA 139.5, approaching a death cross. K=80.4 (pullback from high levels); 60.5 shows daily bullish momentum is exhausted and a correction begins.
Conclusion: BTC is severely oversold in the short term (1H RSI=20.7). A technical rebound is imminent, but the daily trend has weakened; the rebound is still an opportunity to go short. Key support is 70,500~70,800, and resistance is 72,500~73,000.

Ethereum ETHUSDT (Current Price 2,226)
Timeframe MA/BOLL MACD KDJ RSI

Signal
1H: Price breaks below the BOLL lower band at 2,221.63. MACD histogram is -8.61; DIF=-13.71; DEA=-5.10, forming a death cross. K=23.78, J=18.75, with a low value at 17.43 (extremely oversold). It is severely oversold, and a rebound is near.
4H: Price is close to the BOLL lower band at 2,201.69. MACD histogram is -6.04; DIF=6.30; DEA=12.34; the death cross forms. K=32.44, J=0.88 (extreme). 26.62 indicates oversold; the J value bottoms out.
Daily: BOLL midline is 2,118 and the lower band is 1,941. Price falls below MA7. MACD histogram is 0.23 (the positive column disappears); DIF 28.53 and DEA 28.29, approaching a death cross. K=56.56, J=29.27 (downward divergence). 42.89 shows the daily trend weakens and downside room opens.
Conclusion: ETH is more extremely oversold than BTC (1H RSI=17.43, 4H J=0.88), and there is a strong expectation of a short-term rebound. However, the daily trend has already broken down; a rebound into the 2,250~2,280 area remains a zone for short positions. Strong supports are 2,150 / 2,080.

III. Data Collection: Liquidations, Long/Short Ratio, Funding Rate, and Whale Activity
Liquidations across the whole network: Latest data not provided, but recently it has exceeded 150 million. Long/short double liquidations have occurred, clearing the long/short ratio of leverage to 50.75% / 49.25% (maintaining balance). This is a sign before a turning point; the current decline has not led to panic among longs.
BTC funding rate: Continuously negative (-0.005%~-0.01%); shorts have the upper hand, but the accumulation of negative funding rates increases the risk of a short squeeze.
ETH funding rate: Main exchanges are negative, which is bearish. Whale activity on-chain is differentiated: BTC — large holders have reduced holdings; ETH — increased holdings after CPI, but there has been inflow into exchanges recently. The market is split; ETH is relatively resilient against selling pressure, but short-term selling pressure has increased.

IV. Liquidation Map Analysis (Hyperliquid Data)

BTC Liquidation Map (Current ~71,847)
· Upper short liquidation walls: 72,800 / 73,500 / 74,200 (strength is moderate)
· Lower long liquidation walls: 71,200 / 70,500 / 69,800 (strength is extremely high, especially around 71,200)
· Interpretation: Price has approached the 71,200 long liquidation zone; if it breaks below, it will trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations, accelerating the move down to 70,500 and even 69,500.
The upper short walls are farther away, so rebound resistance is high.

ETH Liquidation Map (Current ~2,226)
· Upper short liquidation walls: 2,280 / 2,320 / 2,350 (strength is general)
· Lower long liquidation walls: 2,200 / 2,150 / 2,080 (the wall near 2,150 is extremely thick — more than 100,000 ETH)
· Interpretation: Price has fallen below the 2,200 psychological level. Below, 2,150 has accumulated a massive amount of long leverage; once touched, it will cause a liquidation stampede.
A rebound to 2,250~2,280 will face resistance from shorts.

V. Integrated Strategy & Core Risk-Control Logic
· Short term (1-4H): Both BTC and ETH are in severe oversold conditions, and the probability of a technical rebound is high, but the rebound upside is limited.
· Medium term (Daily): Daily indicators are weakening; with geopolitical factors + a bearish macro outlook, the rebound is an opportunity to add shorts.
· Liquidation risk: Focus on the long liquidation walls at BTC 71,200 and ETH 2,150; once they are broken, the sell-off will accelerate.

Risk-Control Suggestions
1. Shorts: Enter in batches when the price rebounds into the resistance zone (BTC above 72,000, ETH above 2,240). Set the stop loss at the key daily levels.
2. Longs: Only take light positions in oversold areas (around BTC 70,500, around ETH 2,150) to bet on a rebound. Get in and out quickly; do not hold out stubbornly.
3. Position sizing: Single-trade risk ≤ 1.5% of account equity.

---
⚠️ This report is based on public data and technical models and does not constitute direct investment advice. Market volatility is fierce; please be sure to set stop losses and control leverage.

#原油小幅上涨