Bitcoin miners are in a large-scale profitability crisis. Last weekend, bad weather in the United States impacted mining facilities, causing the hash rate to drop by about 20%. It fell from 1.2 zettahashes per second to 950 exahashes per second, and the next difficulty adjustment is expected to decrease by approximately 17%. This is the largest decline since China's mining ban in 2021.

What traders are paying attention to is the Hash Ribbon indicator. It is known as an indicator that captures miner capitulation phases, and looking at past patterns is interesting. When the Hash Ribbon issued a deep surrender signal in late November, Bitcoin bottomed out around $80k. Since then, it rebounded and has now returned close to $88,000.

Similar patterns have repeatedly occurred throughout history. In mid-2024, a similar scenario unfolded, with miner selling and a unwinding of the yen carry trade causing Bitcoin to drop to about $49,000. After the Hash Ribbon normalized, prices recovered rapidly, surpassing $100k by January of the following year. During the 2022 FTX collapse, miner selling pushed the bottom to around $15,000, but as the Hash Ribbon recovered, prices rose to $22,000.

On-chain data also signals a bullish outlook. Realized losses shrank from a peak of $2 billion to $400 million, and the profit-to-loss ratio rose to 1.4. This indicates that forced selling pressure has significantly decreased.

The current key point is how the hash rate and Hash Ribbon indicator will evolve. If past patterns repeat, miner capitulation phases may signal the end of the bottom zone. Whether the normalization of the Hash Ribbon will serve as a signal for Bitcoin's next upward phase could be an important indicator influencing the future market.