I just looked at the data on miners — it seems that one of the longest capitulations in Bitcoin history is coming to an end. The Hash Ribbon should soon signal a recovery, and that usually lines up with local or serious price lows.

What’s interesting right now is that BTC is trading below the average mining cost for the first time since November 2022. When miners face maximum pressure, they start shutting down equipment and selling reserves to pay for electricity and debts. This adds persistent sell pressure, but at the same time it signals deep undervaluation.

The indicator works simply: it compares the moving averages of the hash rate over 30 and 60 days. When the 30-day crosses above the 60-day from below, it means miners are returning to the network. Historically, these moments have coincided with strong accumulation zones, especially if the price momentum is improving at the same time.

Since November, Bitcoin has fallen from 90k to 60k at the start of February, then recovered. It’s currently trading around 72.7k. Over the whole history, there have been about 20 miner capitulations — most of them marked significant lows (2015, 2018, 2022). It looks like the worst period is already behind us.