The crypto market is set to witness over $2.2 billion in options notional expiry, mostly Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The update comes amid price rebounds for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Details of $2.2 billion expiry event
Popular crypto exchange Deribit announced the upcoming Bitcoin and Ethereum expiry event happening on its platform.
According to the details, Bitcoin options make up the bulk of Deribit’s activity, worth $1.9 billion. This is the dominant part of the expiry event.
With $328 million notional expiring, Ethereum is much smaller than BTC but still meaningful for its price dynamics.
On the crypto market, options expiries are liquidity events. As contracts settle, traders close, roll or let positions expire. Market makers also adjust hedges, which can amplify volatility in the hours before and after expiry.
Deribit highlighted that the max pain point for Bitcoin is at $69,000. This is the strike price at which the largest number of outstanding options would expire, worthless. At this price, option buyers lose the most, while sellers keep the premium and minimize payouts.
As regards Ethereum, the max pain point is $2,050. It is calculated by adding up the potential losses for buyers across all strikes and identifying the price that maximizes the collective pain for buyers
Bullish Bitcoin and Ethereum bets
For both BTC and ETH, max pain sits below the current spot price. This setup is therefore anticipated to exert mild upward pressure on both cryptocurrencies.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $72,129, while ETH is hovering around $2,215. The 24-hour trading volume of BTC and ETH also increased moderately by 7.6% and 9.4%, respectively.
The recent rally is quite impressive, considering earlier drops below $70,000 for BTC. Similarly, Ethereum plunged below $2,000 amid a broader market downtrend.
At the moment, the BTC and ETH markets are on a recovery journey, and investors have placed bets on potential rallies.
In its latest post, Deribit noted that the BTC Put/Call ratio is 0.72. This suggests that traders are positioned for upside and showing their aggressiveness on the call side.
Similar to BTC, Ethereum saw more calls than puts in open interest. However, the last 24 hours of trading volume showed heavier put activity
This could indicate short-term caution or traders buying downside protection recently, but overall positioning remains slightly bullish.
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