I just noticed that a prominent research figure at Grayscale, Zach Pandl, shared an interesting perspective on tokenization. It shouldn't be viewed as a quick trade but as a long-term roadmap with various winning moments at each stage.

What’s intriguing is how he breaks down the entire process. Tokenization is currently around $27 billion, roughly 0.01% of the global capital markets. But it’s expected to grow to nearly $19 trillion by 2033. The scale of that opportunity is truly wild.

So how should we think about it? The first stage is likely dominated by institutional-grade, permissioned systems. Here, you see projects that resemble traditional finance, like Canton Network, backed by Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs and Nasdaq. For investors looking for closer-term plays, this is the sweet spot.

Then comes the second model, which is more interesting. It’s a hybrid setup where institutional-owned blockchains and a global shared state are interconnected. Avalanche is a perfect example here with its sovereign subnets ecosystem. AVAX is currently trading around $9.28 with modest daily movement. The beauty of this second approach is that it balances decentralization with institutional needs.

The final stage? That’s the ambitious play—Ethereum and the global, truly decentralized finance setup. ETH is at $2.23K now with a +2.21% daily gain. But seriously, the tech isn’t fully ready yet, and institutions aren’t prepared either. So for those willing to wait for the long game, this is the ultimate bet.

There’s another angle overlooked by many—the chain-agnostic service providers like Chainlink. They could become more attractive than some blockchain networks because of their flexibility.

The way I see it, tokenization isn’t a single event. It’s a multi-stage evolution where different winners emerge at different times. Most institutions are aware this is happening but don’t yet know where to allocate capital. That’s the current bottleneck. Once that clarity arrives, expect this market to move significantly from current valuations.