I just realized that the MSTR stock has really taken a hard plunge. The thing has been falling for seven consecutive months and has lost 75% of its peak in November. It’s currently trading around $141, while Bitcoin has only declined about 40% over the same period. That’s a pretty extreme underperformance for a company that should essentially be considered the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder.

What surprises me: The mNAV multiple is still at 1.09, so the company could theoretically still sell new shares to buy more Bitcoin. But if the stock keeps falling like this, that will eventually no longer work. 2025 was one of the worst years for MSTR with a minus 48% — only 2022 was worse with minus 75%. That currently makes MSTR one of the poorest-performing assets compared to Bitcoin itself.

Back in 2022, when Bitcoin was also in a bear market, MSTR was able to raise only $275 million and used that to buy about 10,000 BTC. If things get tight again now, the company might soon be forced to halt purchases altogether. The performance gap between MSTR and Bitcoin has now grown to over 35% — at times in January even up to 45%, which is a record since 2021. This simply shows that the stock as a Bitcoin proxy is currently not working.