I just reviewed a very interesting analysis released by Mercado Bitcoin about how Bitcoin behaves when the world enters panic mode. And the conclusion is clear: while gold and the stock market collapse during crises, Bitcoin tends to recover more quickly in the following months.

The study looked at 60-day windows after major shocks, whether economic or geopolitical. COVID-19, trade tariffs, international conflicts. And in each case, Bitcoin outperformed both gold and the S&P 500.

Take the example of the tariffs announced recently by the Trump administration. In the 60 days afterward, Bitcoin rose 24%, while gold only managed 8%, and the stock market just 4%. The same pattern occurred in March 2020 when everything turned chaotic: BTC +21%, the rest lagging behind.

Now something similar is happening with the escalation between the United States and Iran. Bitcoin is the only one of the three in positive territory. It has gained more than 2.2%, rising from around $65,800 to the current $72.82k. The gold price fell 11%, and the S&P 500 lost 4.4% in its worst month since 2022.

Rony Szuster, who led the research, warns of something important: it’s not that Bitcoin is magically crisis-proof. At first, when everyone sells to get urgent liquidity, even defensive assets fall. But what’s interesting is what happens afterward. Bitcoin consistently recovers while other assets continue to wobble.

“It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” Szuster says about judging too early. In those initial moments, investors panic and liquidate positions. But over a 60-day horizon, Bitcoin has proven to be the best-performing asset of the last decade.

What’s curious is that this challenges the traditional narrative about safe havens. While gold and the stock market are considered defensive, Bitcoin is demonstrating a recovery pattern that surpasses them when tough times arrive.