每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0404-0410）

The information flow is too fast; in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by trending topics. The “Weekly Editor’s Picks” column extracts these valuable judgment-based contents from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, retain insights, and inspire.

Macroe Situation

Trump’s Deal Handbook: Now Entering the Ninth Step

According to Trump’s Deal Handbook, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately ends with a narrative of “maximum pressure in exchange for concessions.” This development’s potential impact on the market cannot be ignored.

The Kobeissi Letter points out that the tenth step—market violent re-pricing after the official announcement of the agreement—will arrive in the coming weeks. At that time, investors holding defensive positions for the long term will face pressure to rapidly close their positions, possibly causing a sharp rise in the stock market, while oil prices may fall rapidly as the shipping channel reopening expectations are confirmed.

No Oil Field Bombing, Just K-Line: Trump’s Threat Economics

Compared to forcing Iran to concede through deadlines, Trump seems more like using deadlines to set the rhythm for international news cycles and the global energy market.

Trump often repeats a four-step dance: extreme threats, critical withdrawals, negotiation openings, and ritualistic climaxes. Each step is priced by the media and markets as an independent event, and each pricing resets with the next step.

20% Shortage, 100% Collapse: The True Logic of the Energy Crisis

The issue isn’t whether oil is already insufficient, but that once enough people start believing it might be insufficient, the system will preemptively enter contraction and revaluation. Strategic reserves can only extend the time window but cannot provide solutions; and this window is rapidly closing.

In mid to late April, a critical node will be reached. By then, the market will face not “whether it will happen,” but “when it will be confirmed.”

Markets Are Waiting for the War to End, Oil Prices Are Pricing for a Prolonged Battle

With the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude oil supply system is being forced to restructure—Asian buyers are shifting massively to U.S. crude, WTI has overtaken Brent, signaling structural changes in pricing mechanisms and trade flows. Short-term price spreads can be explained by contracts, but more fundamentally, it’s about “who can still supply.” The key misjudgment in the current market isn’t price but timing.

Futures Curve Still Implies a Premise: Conflict Will End Soon, Supply Will Recover.
But a more likely path is a prolonged attrition war. This means high oil prices are no longer a temporary shock but will evolve into a more persistent structural state, with ranges possibly moving up to $120–$150. Under this framework, crude oil is no longer just a commodity but becomes an “upstream variable” for all assets. Its re-pricing will cascade through interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets.

Deep into the Tiger’s Den: An On-the-Ground Report from the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is not simply open or closed. The reality is a parallel of hot warfare and commercial diplomacy: the U.S. is conducting military actions, while its allies (such as France, Japan, Greece) are actively negotiating navigation rights with Iran.

This is a typical symptom of a multipolar world.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Oil Prices Surge, Rates Struggle to Fall, the Seven Sisters Stumble: Which Main Themes to Watch for Q2 U.S. Stock Excess Returns?

Q2 resembles a quarter of high volatility, strong differentiation, and opportunities based on structural shifts. Index-level beta returns are limited, but alpha has not disappeared—in fact, it will be more concentrated, more selective, and more reliant on understanding the evolution of main themes than Q1.

Main themes for U.S. stocks in Q2 include: AI infrastructure 2.0, finance and cyclicals, aerospace and commercial space, the Seven Sisters and software recovery, precious metals, and resource security.

Gold Returns to $4,800: Where Is the Top This Year?

Forecast markets show prices may be below $4,200 before June, with the year’s high potentially exceeding $6,000; institutional views: gold will hit new highs, with prices around $5,200 by the end of June.

A 400% Annualized “Free Lunch”? The Truth About Trade.xyz’s Perpetual Oil Negative Funding Rate

Trade.xyz’s WTIOIL-USDC perpetual contract has shown a rare phenomenon: the annualized funding rate remains stable between -300% and -400%. This means any trader willing to go long at this moment can receive roughly 1% of the principal daily from shorts. But the market doesn’t give away money for free.

Three common strategies are: short the Trade.xyz oil contract at current prices while going long distant contracts on CME; short distant futures and go long near-month contracts on xyz, then close before rollover; or short xyz contracts on Boros before rollover to earn funding fees.

Second Edition of Crypto Bear Market Startup Guide: Token Transfer Hub—Exchanging Crypto Tokens for AI Tokens

The “low-cost API” transfer service is still underestimated: directly purchasing AI tokens with crypto tokens is an underdeveloped structural entry; packaging domestic low-cost models like Qwen, Kimi, GLM, Minimax for overseas users is an under-mainsreamed “reverse export” path.

However, before this business can truly land, it must address—capital thresholds, resource channels, and legal compliance.

Who Is Quietly Profiting in the Bear Market?

First, the interest spread, essentially acting as a “funding intermediary,” with core logic of absorbing funds at relatively low costs and deploying them for higher returns, using time to gradually accumulate the difference between gains and costs—profits depend on the scale and duration of capital deposits; the larger and longer, the higher the returns.

Second, trading fees (commissions). This type of business is easier to understand: as long as there are trading activities (including token creation), the operator can “tax” through fees in each activity—profits depend on the scale and frequency of trades; the larger and more frequent, the higher the gains.

Five and a Half Months of Bear Market: A Crypto Market Checkup

If the decline in total market cap matches the peak-to-trough percentage of 2018 compared to 2022, we might see total crypto market cap drop 62% from its peak to $1.67 trillion (a further 30% below current levels). During the 2022 bear market, the decline accelerated after stablecoin supply peaked and fell for five months. We are currently in a similar phase, as stablecoin supply hit a local high on March 16, about five months into the bear market.

BTC’s dominance usually declines during bear markets (bottomed at 38% in 2022). Currently, it’s at 57%. We expect its decline in this cycle to be more gradual.

Market Predictions

Prediction Markets Fall into Dispute Again: Are You Trading Facts or Rules?

Recently, two highly controversial events occurred in prediction markets—Polymarket: the U.S. rescue of American pilots in Iran was deemed an invasion; Predict.fun: Polymarket’s stablecoin issuance was judged as a coin issuance.

Some high-probability events seem like “financial schemes,” but may not be without risk—in fact, they could be potential “loss scenarios.” Many reversals happen precisely in these overlooked details. Instead of blindly betting, paying more attention to rules is more useful than complaining after losing money.

Also recommended: “Kalshi’s Eight-Year Startup History: The Boxer in a Suit on the Ring.”

CeFi & DeFi

Data Study: How Big Is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?

Currently, Hyperliquid’s liquidity depth and slippage metrics are indeed far behind CME, with overall liquidity below 1%.

Hyperliquid’s difference lies in the weekend trading volume of crude oil contracts, which significantly increases. This indicates that, besides retail speculators, traders seeking crude oil exposure or hedging before Monday are also trading on Hyperliquid. This trend is becoming more evident, giving Hyperliquid the ability to discover prices for commodities.

However, for institutional investors, the high trading costs on Hyperliquid remain a major obstacle to expanding in the commodities trading space. If Hyperliquid does not improve its ability to handle institutional orders early, it will only serve as a temporary weekend trading venue for traditional traders, ultimately becoming a minor supplement in the traditional financial landscape.

Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guide

Popular Interaction Collection | Cascade Private Beta Now Live; KARPAK Minting SBT (April 10)

Step-by-step guide to participating in Circle’s own public chain Arc community events

Meme

If you’re over 25, you’re no longer suitable for meme coins

Meme has become a global competition for capturing hype. The top players in this game are approaching esports-level skills. Even more, professional esports players have joined the game. Standing out and winning prizes in this game is now far more challenging than we imagined.

Security

Anthropic has developed the strongest AI model in history but dares not release it…

Mythos, Anthropic’s next-generation AI model, is the first in human history to surpass 100 trillion parameters (compared to current mainstream models with hundreds of billions to one trillion parameters). Training cost reached an astonishing $16.7k, with significant improvements in software coding, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity tests.

The company dares not release the model directly to prevent malicious exploitation by hackers, instead planning to use the “Glass Wing” program to let top firms test and patch potential vulnerabilities in advance.

Weekly Hot Topics

Policy & Macro Markets

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Briefly, BTC Surges Past $72k, Outlook Worries;

Iran plans to impose transit fees on passing oil tankers during the ceasefire, $1 per barrel payable in Bitcoin (interpretation);

Russia announces a short ceasefire;

SEC Chair: Crypto Safe Harbor proposal submitted to White House for review, allowing crypto projects to raise funds without immediate registration;

Hong Kong’s first stablecoin licenses awarded to HSBC and Standard Chartered, expected to launch stablecoins this year;

Opinions & Voices

Bitwise: Institutional investors see current as a good entry point, Bitcoin may hit $95k by year-end;

Caixin: Polymarket’s USDC settlement and delivery pose significant legal risks for Chinese participants;

CZ’s autobiography “Freedom of Money” online (highlights + review), details spark exchanges between CZ and Star;

Institutions, Major Companies & Leading Projects

SpaceX plans to publish its IPO prospectus by late May;

Analysis: BNY Mellon has been designated as the U.S. government’s official financial agent managing initial accounts; Robinhood will partner with BNY as broker and initial trustee for the “Trump account”;

Polymarket plans a full upgrade of its trading engine and to launch native stablecoin Polymarket USD (interpretation);

Fox News partners with Kalshi to introduce prediction markets to improve reporting accuracy;

Solana launches Agent Skills, supporting AI agents and on-chain interactions;

WLFI plans to submit an early token unlock proposal next week, responding to lending concerns claiming no liquidation risk (lending concern review);

Link to “Weekly Editor’s Picks” series. See you next time~