Bitcoin rose to $74,000 and then fell back to around $71,000. Last week, it nearly recovered all the losses caused by the war, but then gave back one-third of that gain. Technical analysts are evaluating that this rebound encountered resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day moving average. The convergence of these two points indicates a highly congested technical zone.

Interestingly, the analysis suggests that this rally was driven more by a short squeeze than simple bullish confidence. Traders set their stop-losses too close to the market price, leading to liquidations. In the spot market, long leverage liquidation clusters are near $70,000, and the secondary liquidity pool is around $64,000, clearly defining the next movement range.

Looking at weekly performance, the Bitcoin index remains solid, rising 9.52% over the past 7 days. Ethereum increased by 9.58%, BNB by 3.50%, and Solana by 6.30%. Meanwhile, Dogecoin gained 2.94%, and XRP rose by 3.40%.

However, the macroeconomic situation before the weekend is complicated. Since the Iran war, Asian stock indices have fallen 6.4%, the dollar has shown its strongest weekly performance since November 2024, and oil prices are experiencing their largest weekly increase since 2022. These conditions generally do not support a cryptocurrency rally.

$70,000 has served as resistance for a month and now becomes the first support level. Maintaining this level signals a potential breakout, while breaking below could send prices back down to $64,000. There are also forecasts that the war could last from 3 to 8 weeks, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, so variables need to be continuously monitored.

Meanwhile, World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token dropped 12.80% in 24 hours after controversy over its lending strategy. This move came after admitting to borrowing stablecoins using its own governance tokens as collateral.