These days, Bitcoin movements are really interesting. Last week, it reached $74,000 in the middle of the week, then dropped below $68,000 over the weekend. That's about a 3.4% decline in one day. But on the weekly chart, it's still up over 9%. Ethereum shows a similar pattern.

I think the biggest factor is the insanely strong dollar. Due to tensions in the Middle East, people are flocking to safe assets like the dollar, recording the biggest weekly gain in a year. Rising energy prices and inflation concerns are also making the Fed delay interest rate cuts. Risk assets like Bitcoin are naturally facing headwinds.

On-chain data makes it even more complicated. It shows that 43% of Bitcoin supply is in a loss state. That means there's a huge amount of sell-off pressure every time prices go up. This might be one reason why breaking through $74,000 failed. On the positive side, there's also a sign of inflows into stablecoins, which surged 415%. This indicates that there’s waiting capital, so once the market stabilizes, there’s a good chance it could come back.

Ultimately, I think the macro environment is the worst right now. With a strong dollar, high energy prices, and the Fed delaying rate cuts, it’s hard for Bitcoin to surge vertically. But looking at weekly returns, it’s still positive, so once the Middle East situation calms down and the dollar stabilizes, there’s plenty of room for a rebound.