CryptoQuant: Sustainable futures longs are catalyzing BTC and ETH to rise, not liquidation-triggered

Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno published a report on April 9 stating that within 24 hours after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, Bitcoin was up by about 4% and Ethereum was up by about 6%. CryptoQuant on-chain data confirms that the main driver behind this rally is new long positions being opened in the perpetual futures market, not a passive pump triggered by short liquidations.

Key Findings: Synchronized Long Positioning Confirms Real Buying Pressure

Within the 24 hours after the ceasefire was announced, open interest for BTC and ETH perpetual futures increased by $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, reaching the highest levels in nearly a month. More importantly, open interest also increased significantly when denominated in crypto (rather than in dollars), effectively ruling out the possibility that short liquidations were the main driver.

Moreno said, “The simultaneous surge in the two main assets reflects position adjustments driven by macro events. Crucially, open interest denominated in crypto also increased significantly, ruling out short liquidations as the main driver and confirming that traders are establishing new long positions.”

Core Data at a Glance

BTC Perpetual Open Interest 24-Hour Increment: $2.1 billion, reaching a peak in nearly a month

ETH Perpetual Open Interest 24-Hour Increment: $2.2 billion, reaching a peak in nearly a month

BTC vs. ETH Buy-Sell Ratio: Both exceed 1.0, with buy-side dominance

Mechanism Confirmed: Crypto-denominated open interest rises in sync, ruling out liquidations and confirming new long position openings

Coinbase Premium Turns Positive: U.S. Institutional Buying Returns to the Market

In addition to perpetual futures data, the Coinbase Premium index also conveys a positive signal. After remaining negative for several consecutive weeks, the premium on Coinbase for BTC and ETH has turned positive, meaning demand from U.S. institutional investors is picking back up.

Moreno said that if the ceasefire agreement holds and there is no escalation in the situation over the next two weeks, the Coinbase premium could remain positive, further reinforcing the price uptrend. He also emphasized, “The coordinated bullish positioning in BTC and ETH suggests that the market at least expects macroeconomic conditions to continue improving in the short term.”

Bitcoin Technicals: Breaks $69,400, Next Target $79,000

During this upmove, Bitcoin broke through traders’ low realized price (about $69,400). This level has been a strong resistance for the past few weeks, and the breakout has structural significance from a technical perspective.

If Bitcoin can hold above $69,400 and there is no further escalation in the U.S.–Iran situation, the next key target is traders’ high realized price (about $79,000). Moreno warned that this level “historically is usually associated with bear-market resistance and is the key obstacle to a structural recovery,” and that before the breakout there could still be tests of significant selling pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does CryptoQuant emphasize that this BTC and ETH rally is ‘long positioning’ rather than ‘short liquidations’?

The essential difference between the two is sustainability. Short liquidations are a passive, one-time reaction; after the driving force runs out, pullbacks often follow. New long position openings represent active buying intent and are more likely to drive a sustained uptrend. CryptoQuant uses the synchronized increase in crypto-denominated open interest as the key basis to rule out liquidations.

How much did open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual futures increase after the ceasefire announcement?

Within the 24 hours after the ceasefire was announced, BTC perpetual futures open interest increased by $2.1 billion and ETH increased by $2.2 billion. Both reached the highest levels in nearly a month, and the buy-sell ratio for both also exceeded 1.0, making clear that buy-side dominance is strong.

What is the next technical target after Bitcoin breaks $69,400?

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, after breaking the $69,400 low realized price, the next key target is the high realized price at about $79,000. Moreno pointed out that this level is historically tied to bear-market resistance and is the “key obstacle to a structural recovery.”