Just caught Tom Lee's take from Korea Blockchain Week on ETH and it's pretty interesting. He's calling for a $60K target mid-term and saying we're in a super cycle that could last 10-15 years. Not sure if he nailed it, but the framework he's using to analyze where ETH could go is worth looking at.

So here's the thing - if you track the 200-week MA, ETH is trading about 92% above it right now. Back in 2021 when things peaked, we saw it go 492% above. That's a massive difference. Using that as a guide, if ETH hits 250% above the MA, you're looking at roughly $8500. Not saying it will, but it's a reference point.

The realized price ratio is another angle. Historically ETH averages 1.6x, we're at 1.9x now. In 2021 it hit 3.5x. If that ratio climbs to 2.9x with a realized price around $3000, that puts ETH at $8700. Again, just scenario planning.

What's wild is comparing ETH's market cap to Bitcoin's. Right now it's about 23% of BTC's cap. Back in November 2021 it hit 55%. If BTC rallies to $150K and ETH's ratio climbs to 35-45% of Bitcoin's market cap, you're looking at ETH somewhere between $8600-$11K range. That's a pretty wide band depending on how the cycle plays out.

The Nasdaq ratio is telling too. Peak ratios in 2021 were around 0.30-0.31, now we're at 0.20. If that ratio rises back up, ETH could see significant upside. Even at 0.35 ratio with a higher Nasdaq, you're talking $8300+.

Baseline scenario across all these indicators clusters around $8500-$8700. But here's the catch - we've seen 94% crashes before (2018) and 80% drawdowns (2022). So while the bull case looks solid for ETH prediction through this cycle, there's always that correction lurking. Bull markets don't run forever. The question is whether we get there first or if we see a pullback before breaking higher. Market's still got room to run, but keep those risk management levels tight.