“U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Proposal,” currently the market is indeed trading on this expectation. But it needs to be clarified: this is still in the “news sentiment game” stage and has not been finalized. Iran has already stated that it will not accept a temporary ceasefire in exchange for opening the strait, and has rejected the U.S. deadline of “before Monday,” so there are still uncertainties ahead.

Regarding the “geopolitical cooling effect on the crypto market,” the conclusion is: in the short term, it clearly benefits risk assets, but in the long term, it’s about liquidity rather than geopolitics.

1. Why “short-term bullish”: Risk appetite recovery

If the situation substantially eases, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are likely to rebound along with the U.S. stock market, with a very clear logic chain:

Oil prices fall, inflation eases: Expectations of the Strait of Hormuz opening will suppress crude oil prices (currently oil prices already include about $5-6 of geopolitical risk premium), and market concerns about “secondary inflation” and the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates will weaken.

Liquidity expectations improve: Cooling inflation pressures mean room for rate cuts opens up, global liquidity expectations improve, directly benefiting high-beta (high-risk) assets like BTC and ETH.

Safe-haven assets retreat: Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar will pull back as risks diminish, and funds will rotate into risk assets.

Note: Recent market behavior has repeatedly validated this pattern—news of “negotiations/ceasefire” in the Middle East causes BTC to rise; reports of “conflict escalation” lead BTC to fall along with U.S. stocks. This indicates that, at this stage, crypto assets are behaving more like “tech stocks” rather than “digital gold.”

2. “Long-term bear” or “long-term bull”? Look at the macro backdrop

The so-called “short-term bullish, long-term bearish” concern mainly stems from a misjudgment of the long-term drivers of geopolitics. In fact:

Geopolitical risk is not the long-term fuel for the crypto market. The conflict itself (such as war premiums) does not directly create long-term value for Bitcoin; it’s just short-term emotional disturbance. What truly determines BTC’s long-term trend are global liquidity (interest rates) and adoption.

The premise of “long-term bear” does not exist. Unless a ceasefire triggers a global recession or a sharp liquidity contraction (which, at present, seems quite the opposite—relieving stagflation risks), geopolitical cooling itself will not lead to a long-term bear market in crypto.

A more likely path is: Geopolitical cooling → risk appetite recovery → a valuation repair rally in the crypto market → then returning to its own technical fundamentals and macro liquidity mainline.

3. Trading strategies and risks

Watch signals: Keep a close eye on WTI crude oil prices and U.S. Nasdaq futures. If oil prices plunge and Nasdaq rebounds, BTC usually moves up in tandem.

Beware of “buy the rumor, sell the fact”: If the agreement truly materializes today (Monday) or in the coming days, be prepared for a short-term pullback after the good news is priced in.

Maximum risk point: Breakdown of the agreement. If U.S.-Iran talks collapse, and Trump’s threat to strike Iran’s power facilities materializes, oil prices will surge, and risk assets (including crypto) will face a new round of selling pressure.

Summary: If a ceasefire is truly achieved, it’s a short-term + neutral positive for BTC/ETH, not a negative. The real “long-term bear” risk comes from a breakdown of the agreement leading to conflict escalation, not peace itself.