Recently, interesting analyses have emerged regarding the movement of altcoins. One such report was published by the major market maker Wintermute, which points out that the traditional 4-year cycle of the cryptocurrency market is no longer functioning. This suggests a significant structural change.

Specifically, what’s happening is that the altcoin rally period in 2025 has been shortened to an average of only about 20 days. Compared to approximately 60 days the previous year, this is a reduction to one-third. In other words, the period during which altcoins do not rise has become overwhelmingly longer.

Traditionally, capital would flow into Bitcoin (BTC), then into Ethereum (ETH), and subsequently spread across the entire altcoin market. This cascade effect created a narrative-driven market. However, by 2025, this conventional cycle has completely weakened. Instead, only a few large-cap coins are absorbing most of the new capital.

Why is this happening? The main reason is that ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DAT) have evolved into a “closed ecosystem.” These investment products bring stable capital to BTC, ETH, and some large altcoins, but because their investment scope is limited, there is little capital inflow into a broader range of altcoins. Liquidity is confined to specific assets.

Furthermore, the shift of individual investors’ interest toward themes like AI and quantum computing, which are popular in the stock market, is also accelerating capital concentration in the crypto market. The phenomenon of altcoins not rising is driven by these complex factors.

Wintermute’s analysis suggests three possible scenarios for the development after 2026: one, ETFs and DAT expand their investment scope; two, price increases in BTC or ETH ripple through the entire altcoin market; or three, individual investors’ interest shifts back from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

Signs of expanding investment scope, such as ETF applications for Solana and XRP, have already begun to appear. However, it remains uncertain how much capital will actually flow into the altcoin market.

An important point is that future market judgment should not rely solely on the traditional 4-year cycle prediction but must instead focus on understanding liquidity flows and changes in investor psychology. To grasp why altcoins are not rising, it is necessary to observe both macro capital flows and micro investor sentiment. In this phase of significant structural change, it is clear that traditional theories are no longer applicable.