Date: March 27, 2026

Short-term Impact

1)
· Event: The Iranian military latest statement claims that if the U.S. attempts to forcibly restore navigation rights, they will **"comprehensively blockade the Strait of Hormuz" and have completed military mobilization (over 1 million personnel)**.
· Impact: Conflict re-escalates to extreme scenarios → risk of sharp oil price spikes, safe-haven assets (gold/USD) supported.
· Focus: Whether a substantive blockade or mine deployment occurs.

2)
· Event: The U.S. is reported to be developing a **"Decisive Strike" plan (including island seizure + blockade + ground operations)**.
· Impact: War expectations shift from "limited strikes" to "full-scale action" → global risk assets come under pressure.
· Focus: Whether it enters actual implementation stage (airstrikes/landing).

3)
· Event: The U.S. announces the deployment of approximately 3,000 paratroopers and expeditionary forces to the Middle East.
· Impact: Military escalation enters the "troop deployment" phase → market volatility rises, defense sector benefits.
· Focus: Whether it expands to larger-scale ground forces.

4)
· Event: U.S. Secretary of State states progress in US-Iran negotiations, with the volume of Hormuz navigation beginning to rebound.
· Impact: Eased expectations → oil prices come under pressure, short-term stock rebound.
· Focus: Whether navigation recovery is sustained (whether >30%).

5)
· Event: Iran allows 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling goodwill in negotiations.
· Impact: Marginal supply recovery → short-term oil price decline, but structural risks remain.
· Focus: Whether the release scale is expanded or institutionalized.

6)
· Event: Trump announces that strikes on Iran’s energy facilities are postponed again (delayed until early April).
· Impact: Conflict pace shifts to "delay + negotiation" → market enters high-frequency volatility zone.
· Focus: Whether it is postponed again or suddenly shifts to military action.

Long-term Impact

7)
· Event: Iran formally responds through intermediaries to the U.S. ceasefire framework, proposing prerequisites such as stopping aggression + compensation + security mechanisms.
· Impact: Negotiations enter a "structural game" → difficulty in achieving ceasefire increases, conflict cycle lengthens.
· Focus: Whether core terms acceptable to both sides emerge.

8)
· Event: Iran confirms **"selective opening"** of the Strait of Hormuz (friendly countries permitted passage).
· Impact: Global trade enters a "camp-based shipping" phase → supply chain fragmentation, long-term cost increases.
· Focus: Whether the list of permitted countries expands or tightens.

9)
· Event: Russia warns that the Middle East conflict has caused systemic shocks to global supply chains of energy, metals, fertilizers, etc.
· Impact: Commodities enter a long-term tight balance → inflation center rises.
· Focus: Whether industrial product prices continue to rise in tandem.

10)
· Event: The market exhibits features of a "fight-and-talk" new phase, with conflict and negotiations progressing simultaneously.
· Impact: Asset pricing shifts to "event-driven + sentiment-driven" → volatility becomes a core variable.
· Focus: Whether a stable game rhythm (upgrading—de-escalation cycle) forms.