Launch of $BTC Morgan Stanley ETF “Soon,” But Price May Not Break US$75,000

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
traded at US$69,834 on March 26, 2026, down 2.11% in a day after failing again to stay above US$71,000.

Money Flow Index (MFI) is at 69.38 on the daily chart, approaching but not yet crossing the overbought threshold at 80. Two other signals also indicate that the market is not ready to move higher in the near term.

Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Enters Weak Flow Environment

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF (ETF) is reportedly about to launch soon, according to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas. The official listing announcement on NYSE adds weight to these expectations.

Such developments typically serve as strong catalysts. However, the launch is happening amid disappointing ETF fund flows and a slowdown in long-term holder accumulation.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily net outflow of only US$7.81 million on March 25, well below the early March peak seen on the SoSoValue chart. The total net assets of all spot Bitcoin ETFs amount to US$91.63 billion, with the white trend line on the chart showing this value has been decreasing since early March.

Sessions on March 5 and 6 showed large red bars reaching around -US$$400 million in daily net outflows — the worst of the month. Although flows turned positive again in mid-March with consistent green bars, the last sessions from March 19 to 25 showed positive inflows diminishing, with small red bars reappearing on March 20 and 21.

Morgan Stanley’s presence in this sector provides a credible long-term demand channel. However, institutional interest reflected in current fund flow data has not yet supported a price breakout in the near term. A sustained increase in daily net inflows above US$$200 million is needed for the price to move more significantly.

Long-Term BTC Holders Are Starting to Slow Their Accumulation

The net position change chart for holders on Glassnode covers the period from March 11 to 25. All bars in this period are green, indicating long-term Bitcoin holders continue to add to their balances. However, the size of these bars tells a different story as the month progresses.

From March 11 to 16, daily accumulation ranged from 44,000 to 46,000 BTC. After March 17, the bars began to shorten consistently, dropping to around 36,000 BTC on March 22, then plunging sharply to about 33,000 BTC on March 24, and slightly rising to around 34,000 BTC on March 25.

Long-term holders have not stopped accumulating, but the pace of accumulation slowed sharply in the last week of March. This slowdown, occurring alongside Bitcoin’s failure to hold above US$71,000 multiple times, signals waning confidence at the current price levels rather than strengthening.

BTC Price Must Confront Levels Previously Broken

The Fibonacci retracement grid on the daily chart spans from the zero level at US$65,550 to the 100% level at US$79,664. The 61.8% retracement is at US$74,297, marked by a green horizontal line. BTC touched this zone three times in March — roughly on the 5th, 17th, and 19th — and was always rejected without closing above that level.

The current price at US$69,834 places BTC between the 23.6% level at US$68,930 and the 38.2% level at US$70,981. The MFI at 69.38 remains below 80, indicating there is still room for buying pressure before the indicator signals overbought conditions.

However, the MFI did cross above 80 in mid-March but failed to produce a breakout at US$74,297, limiting the confidence of relying solely on this indicator.

A daily close above US$74,297 would open the door toward the 78.6% level at US$76,657 and then the full retracement at US$79,664. Conversely, invalidation of the bullish scenario occurs if the daily close falls below US$68,930. If that happens, US$65,550 will become the next key level to watch on the chart.