Trump's 48-hour ultimatum is, frankly, more for the voters than for Iran. If oil prices actually hit $100, it would basically be political suicide for a U.S. president—he has to know this.

But here's the problem: Iran's mentality has shifted. After years of repeated sanctions, negotiations, and torn agreements, they've accepted one thing: there's no long-term credibility in talking to America. So getting them to sit down for real negotiations now is much harder than before. They're more inclined to "return some color first," then talk about anything else.

That said, a lot of people are thinking about this too linearly—saying Iran will push up oil prices to hammer U.S. stocks hard. That logic is a bit idealistic. America today isn't the country that relied purely on imported oil back then. Higher oil prices would definitely squeeze consumption, but they're also transfusing blood into America's own energy sector. You'd see an impact, sure, but not enough to collapse the stock market in one shot.

What matters isn't whether there will be a "hit," but how badly it will hit.

Someone like Trump doesn't need a real major war. He just needs the market and voters to feel that—he's tough, he dares to act, but the situation hasn't spiraled out of control either.

So the more realistic script is probably the same old playbook:

Small-scale moves, proxy friction, localized escalation, then keep talking tough, keep the rhythm in that "tense but not explosive" zone.

Iran's the same way—unlikely to go all-in. Actually blockading shipping lanes or large-scale strikes on energy infrastructure? That drags themselves down too. More likely they'll stretch it out, grind bit by bit, keep the situation hanging.

Bottom line, this isn't a game of who crushes whom harder—it's a contest over who controls the pace better.

So your final question—does Trump dare risk crashing the stock market by bombing power plants?

The answer closer to reality is: he'll make moves that *look* like he dares, but won't actually bring the market down with him.

The show must go on, but the house doesn't get burned down.