Today’s I want to talk about a geopolitical update

Trump’s comments around de-escalation with Iran injected optimism, triggering a sharp move across markets. Oil dropped aggressively, nearly 10%+ in a short span, and that relief immediately translated into strength in risk assets, with SPX and BTC both pushing higher

However, the situation remains fragile. Iran has now denied those talks, which is bringing uncertainty back into the market and reintroducing volatility.

- If Crude breaks lower again, that would be a strong positive signal for risk assets, and we can expect SPX and $BTC to continue higher.

- But if oil stabilizes or pushes higher again, volatility will remain and upside will stay limited.

For now, markets are headline-driven, and oil remains the key variable controlling direction.