Morning market movements align with our predictions. Bitcoin failed to hold above the 68,500 level and instead broke down from this resistance, with the lowest point reaching 67,400 before stabilizing. The short positions we opened around 68,300 in the morning achieved precise profit-taking at 67,500, capturing over 800 points of gains; Ethereum entered simultaneously at 2,066, capturing 26 points. Although the price ratio has experienced a new round of upside, rebounding to around 68,500, we should remain vigilant about bull trap risks in the overall trend.

From the daily timeframe perspective, although Bitcoin's price has rebounded somewhat, it remains pressured below the MA10 moving average. The MA5 and MA10 maintain a bearish death cross with diverging spreads, indicating the bearish structure has not fundamentally changed. On the 4-hour chart, price rebounded to the 68,500 level, which coincides with both the Bollinger Band middle band and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous down-move, forming dual resistance. Although the MACD fast and slow lines show signs of a golden cross below the zero line, the momentum histogram lacks sufficient volume expansion, suggesting the rebound lacks volume support and may merely be a technical correction driven by short covering. For Ethereum, it simultaneously rebounded to around 2,070, facing the same Bollinger Band middle band resistance, with overall momentum weaker than Bitcoin.

Before the price ratio can effectively establish above the 68,800-69,000 zone, we recommend maintaining a bearish bias on rallies and avoiding chasing longs blindly. For Bitcoin, watch the 68,500-68,800 zone for shorting opportunities, with downside support levels at 67,800 and 67,400 respectively; For Ethereum, similarly watch the 2,070-2,085 zone for shorting opportunities, with initial support at 2,040. Should it break below 2,020, further downside toward the 2,000 level may follow. #Gate13周年全球庆典 $BTC