One chart clarifies the phase BTC is in from the wave pattern.

Bull market's 5-wave ascent completed; bear market's 3-wave decline with sideways consolidation! After a major drop, there's always a major consolidation!
Currently in a composite platform consolidation phase. There's a possibility of a guiding wedge pattern that could bring price to 77-78 levels, but the probability is low. The 74K resistance is formidable.
Why is 74K so difficult to break through?
Looking back at historical price action, last year's low formed massive support at 74K, creating a memory point in the market narrative. Breaking below this level has the weight of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. So 74K becomes like the Hangu Pass of Great Qin—an impassable natural barrier to reaching the plateau. Moreover, 78K has another defensive pass; much less reaching 80K, crossing the Wei River and driving to 84K in Xianyang territory!
Why is 68.5K so difficult to break down?
Moving averages are tangled, various indicators can't resonate together. Short momentum follows the pattern of selling bounces. Also, after experiencing a major short squeeze, many longs got scared and turned into shorts. This requires a cycle of continued range-bound shaking to shake out high-frequency traders and high-leverage players.
The current rise looks strong on the surface, but the consolidation remains stuck above the 200-line support on the weekly at 685K. It lingered in the 65-62 range for so long in the lower section. If the range is still 72-62, we must allow for rotation in 70-72. Not even 71.8 was held; can't really call it strong!
Moreover, a major bottom needs major volume—this is highly unlikely without it. I may not catch shorts that precisely, but trading major bottoms rarely leads to big losses. The major bottom hasn't arrived yet, so don't rush!
Conclusion: One short and one long in January, still mainly bearish. Based on a cost of 70K, the ideal exit is when the 4-hour second candle firmly holds 71.8. This allows taking better prices on the upside. Shorts above 73K have excellent positioning; patience is warranted. Daily hasn't broken above 60MA. Can still capture thousands in pips.
Operations:
BTC remains short above 71.8, exit on 4-hour close above 71.8. Take profits in batches at 655-635.
ETH also not holding firm at 2145 as discussed daily reviews, also short. Take profits 1920-1820.
XAU gold has already declined. Wait for breakdown of 5060, take profit at 4680! $BTC