As of 22:00 on March 11, 2026, the US-Iran situation has entered a phase of temporary de-escalation but the risks are not fully eliminated, resulting in a volatile game of tug-of-war characterized by "short-term premium decline and medium-term disturbances." This directly impacts the fluctuation rhythm and safe-haven logic of core assets such as crude oil and gold. Overall market sentiment: the cooling of the situation has boosted risk appetite, suppressing previously driven safe-haven assets, and providing temporary support for risk assets. However, geopolitical risks have not been fully resolved, and the market remains vulnerable to sudden news shocks, maintaining a volatile bottoming process.

US stance shift: Trump stated that "the war will end soon" and "it's best to stop when things look good," with the core goal of avoiding high oil prices that could boost inflation and reduce mid-term election political risks. The White House emphasized conditional negotiations but did not specify a ceasefire timetable, still reserving the option of military intervention. Iranian civilian facilities have been damaged, and retaliation efforts are limited; neither side shows a clear willingness to fully engage in war, entering a deadlock stage of "combination of fighting and negotiations."
In line with our previous expectations, safe-haven assets surged then retreated, with crude oil dropping from 120 to around 80 support levels for adjustment, and gold also entering an adjustment phase. #crypto digital risk assets are supported and beginning to bottom out and rebound. The strategy of low buying remains unchanged, but shakeouts are intensifying—buying on dips is an opportunity, and so is selling on highs. Breaking key levels would signal the end of the bottoming process.