Tonight at 8:30, the US will release February CPI data, which is currently the most focused point in the market.

Currently, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March have fallen to less than 3%, which means the CPI is almost unable to alter the pricing of "no rate cut in March." Instead, caution is needed: if the CPI rises significantly, market logic will shift from "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates"—this will be a heavy bombshell for risk assets💥.

Macroeconomic risks should also not be ignored. The escalation of the Middle East conflict, with the US demanding Israel stop airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, is driven by fears of energy shortages. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is dangerous, with Iran deploying torpedoes increasing tensions. Fake news and real news cause wild market swings. But the market trend does not lie; paying attention to candlestick signals is more reliable than chasing news.

Back to Bitcoin. BTC has an upward channel but lacks strong bullish momentum; it reversed after touching resistance yesterday. 72,000 remains a key battleground. Today, it tested the 69,500 level multiple times; if it breaks below, it may drop to 65,500 support. In the current pattern, shorting at high levels could have significant downward potential.
$BTC $ETH #伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷