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71,670 is the R3 level and the upper end of the range, and it was touched again today.
I'm a bit conflicted—I can call it trading intuition or not, but I feel that a retest here doesn't necessarily indicate obvious weakness.
Although this level coincides with our intraday resistance point and the upper boundary of the range, I still don't want to directly call for a short or strong hedge.
If a reversal really occurs here, we must treat 71,670 as the starting point, leaving enough room for the market, and at least wait until around 72,500 before making a move.
My intuition might not have much value; after all, in trading, systems, strategies, and charts are king. Intuition often just finds a bunch of "logic" to justify itself at the most critical points on the chart.
But 71,670 is not an arbitrary level; it has been respected by the market multiple times with real money in the past. As long as it isn't effectively broken, we should continue to treat it as an important support.
Currently, I am only doing risk avoidance or observing. Of course, I understand the bearish logic—if you're playing range-bound trading, this is indeed a good spot to act.
My concern is due to the current macro environment. Geopolitical conflicts are escalating, but market reactions are contrary to our expectations, which makes me think that this time, a reverse breakout might really happen.
However, it's not too late to enter after a breakout confirmation. There's no need to bet in advance; waiting for the signal to confirm before acting is more prudent. $BTC