Bitcoin MACD Drops to 2022 Bear Market Levels, Analysts Warn of Potential "Crypto Winter" Ahead

Bitcoin prices have been under continuous pressure over the past few weeks, and last week, they stalled at the $74,000 mark, indicating that the market may be facing a deeper crisis as a rebound appears to be failing.

Market analyst Tony Severino stated today that Bitcoin's current price trend is highly similar to that during the 2022 bear market, suggesting the market might be on the brink of a new round of intense volatility.

This assessment is not unfounded, primarily based on the ongoing deterioration of the LMACD indicator on the two-week chart.

As a key measure of trend momentum, the MACD histogram (green) is currently below the neutral line, and the signal line (red) shows signs of continuous expansion, indicating that downward momentum is strengthening.

Severino specifically mentioned that the expansion of the MACD indicator has reached its lowest level since 2022, when the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem caused a significant shock to the entire cryptocurrency market.

He also warned that such extreme technical signals often foreshadow "something bad might be about to happen," implying that a crypto winter may be quietly approaching.

The current two-week Bitcoin LMACD momentum indicator's similarity to the Luna collapse trend of 2022 undoubtedly sounds an alarm for the market.

Looking back at historical data, similar bear market signals appeared after the Terra collapse in May 2022, with Bitcoin's price dropping sharply from over $50,000 to around $30,000 within just two months, a decline of about 40%.

Although MACD, as a lagging indicator, likely reflects information that has already been partially absorbed by the market, and Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% since 2026, the deterioration of this technical indicator still serves as a warning to investors.

As of press time, BTC is trading around $67,800, with little volatility in the past 24 hours. This sideways consolidation may indicate that the market is waiting for new guidance on its next direction.

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