#国际油价突破100美元 Oil prices soar to $100, just the beginning

At the start of the US-Iran conflict, analysts were still predicting oil prices would rise to $80, but unexpectedly, by last Friday’s close, WTI and Brent crude oil prices had both surpassed the $90 mark.

Even Goldman Sachs’ previously optimistic chief analyst, who expected a decline in oil prices, was quickly proven wrong by reality and had to "withdraw" their earlier report. According to Goldman Sachs’ latest research report: if there are no signs of normalizing Strait traffic in the next few days or no signs of a resolution this week, oil prices are likely to break through $100 next week; if Strait traffic remains subdued throughout March, prices could surpass the historical peaks of 2008 and 2022.
This means that the originally short-lived oil shock could evolve into a global “oil crisis.” How high will future oil prices go? How will the situation in the Strait of Hormuz develop?

Five Major Reasons Driving International Oil Prices Up

1. The fundamental reason for the surge in international oil prices is that Iran, from the very first night of the outbreak of war, played its hand—imposing the first-ever substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Goldman Sachs data, before the blockade, the average daily oil flow through the Strait was about 20 million barrels. After the blockade, the daily flow decreased by approximately 90%, or about 18 million barrels per day, compared to normal levels.
2. The second major reason is that alternative routes are insufficient. After the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, Middle Eastern countries began seeking ways to transport oil, but currently, there are only two backup routes: first, the east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which can deliver oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu; second, the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which can deliver to the Gulf of Oman. Theoretically, the full capacity of these backup pipelines could reach about 4 million barrels per day. However, Goldman Sachs’ actual data shows that over the past four days, these two pipelines have only increased oil transportation by 900,000 barrels per day, far below their theoretical maximum.
3. The third reason is that Iran’s war has already affected oil and natural gas extraction and storage facilities. This means that even if the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked, crude oil production capacity cannot be quickly restored. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, oil facilities across the Middle East have been targeted by drones and missile attacks, including Saudi refineries and port facilities, as well as Qatar’s largest LNG export terminal.
Additionally, the UAE’s oil storage terminals and tank farms, Bahrain’s refineries, and Oman’s port fuel pipelines have been attacked.
The situation is worsening. On the night of March 7, Israel attacked multiple Iranian fuel facilities—marking the first attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran.
On March 7, after an Iranian oil depot was hit, thick smoke billowed out.
As a “direct response to attacks on Tehran’s oil facilities by the US and Israel,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missiles that precisely hit the Israeli Haifa refinery. This move broke the previous “limited to military targets” tacit rule, expanding the conflict from military confrontation to “full-scale energy war.”
4. The fourth reason is that the end of the war seems “far off.” US President Trump recently suggested a possible end to the Iran conflict: the war will only end when Tehran no longer has operational military forces or any remaining leadership. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated in an interview, “A country with only 250 years of history (the US) trying to command a nation with 3,000 years of history (Iran), and forcing Iran to submit, is absolutely impossible.” He clearly stated Iran will never surrender and will continue resisting.
5. The fifth reason is the skyrocketing shipping war insurance premiums. According to Reuters, citing broker Jefferies, before the conflict, the war risk premium for a ship was 0.25%. Now, the new rate has risen to 3%, meaning premiums have increased from $625,000 to $7.5 million—an over 10-fold increase.
A simple calculation shows that the increased insurance costs will directly raise transportation costs for oil traders, which will be passed downstream to refineries, adding approximately $3.44 per barrel to international oil prices. More importantly, as war risks accumulate, maritime insurers are canceling war risk coverage for ships. On March 1, the London P&I Club and the American P&I Club announced that war risk coverage would be canceled starting March 5.
Existing war risk policies are being canceled by insurers, and shipowners seeking new coverage are being refused quotes or facing significantly higher premiums. As a result, shipowners generally cannot insure war risk at acceptable costs and prefer to stay in port, waiting for the situation to clarify. This is one of the reasons why the Strait of Hormuz shipping has effectively halted, causing crude oil prices to surge.

Is $100 just the beginning?
As the conflict worsens, on March 6, Brent crude futures surged 9.26%, and US crude futures jumped 12.67%, with both surpassing $90 per barrel.
From a monthly perspective, March’s Brent crude has already risen by 27.47%, and US crude futures by 35.64%, with spillover effects on various commodities.
On March 7, gasoline prices at US gas stations approached $6 per gallon.
Even more concerning, $100 may not be the end. Based on external market forecasts, by the end of March, there is about a 72% chance that international crude prices will reach $110, and a 54% chance they will hit $120. And this is only the forecast for March’s increase.
With the timing of reopening uncertain and storage tanks limited, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are announcing production cuts and halts one after another.
Kuwait officially announced on March 7 that due to Iran’s war preventing oil tankers from passing through the Persian Gulf, the country has implemented “preventive reductions” in oil production and refining.
Iraq is currently the most affected oil producer. Iraq’s oil minister revealed this week that, due to export blockages, Iraq’s oil output has been halved—from 4.3 million barrels per day before the conflict to 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day.
The reason for the production cuts is simple: many countries’ storage tanks are already nearly full. For example, Qatar’s storage capacity will be exhausted within days. Once production cuts turn into shutdowns, international oil prices could surge to $150.
UBS commodity strategist Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that shutdowns not only cause long-term damage to reservoir pressure but also entail additional costs for restarting, often as a last resort.
Macquarie global energy strategist Vikas Devedi said, “We are increasingly convinced that if an agreement cannot be reached and all military actions are not quickly halted, the crude oil market will collapse within days rather than weeks or months.” He also added, “If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for several weeks, it will trigger a domino effect (inventory depletion, refinery bidding wars), potentially pushing oil prices to $150 per barrel or higher.”
Qatar’s energy minister shared the same view: if tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf exporters will cease production within days, which could cause oil prices to soar to $150 per barrel in the coming weeks and “plunge the global economy into chaos.”