The root cause of this round of market panic is actually a strategic misjudgment by Trump. He previously relied on creating chaos around Maduro to make Venezuela quickly compromise, tasted success, and then wanted to use the same approach to force Iran to submit by provoking Soleimani. However, Iran held firm. Now Trump is instead being grilled, forced to escalate— the third aircraft carrier is already on its way, but Iran has low-cost drone attacks and is supported by satellite positioning from Russia, making it impossible to suppress in the short term.

The situation has become deadlocked, and the market's reaction is somewhat similar to last year's tariff war: first, a big hit is inflicted, causing panic among everyone. Eventually, Trump can't withstand the public pressure and forcibly declares victory, leading to a potential rebound in US stocks and the crypto market. This process will take at least a few weeks.

The current issue is that by 6 a.m. on Monday, oil and US stock futures will open, and emotions will likely be released first. The crypto market is somewhat better off because it already declined over the weekend, and 24-hour trading has helped release some risk in advance. But the overall trend remains downward, and the negative factors haven't been eliminated. A rebound after a significant drop isn't surprising.

If there's really a chance for a rebound, such as Bitcoin returning to the 69,000 to 70,000 range, I will re-enter a long-term position!