I can understand why many people are feeling pessimistic about the crypto market right now. Many traders who only look at K-line charts have already started saying the bull market is over.

But if we break down the macro big picture, many core variables still lean towards the bullish side.
Let's start with a key concept: global liquidity. Simply put, it's how much money is available to flow within the global financial system. Central bank easing, bank lending, government fiscal stimulus—all of these are essentially increasing liquidity.
Over the past decade, a clear pattern has emerged: the more global liquidity there is, the higher risk assets tend to rise. Since 2012, Bitcoin's correlation with global liquidity has been about 90%, and with the Nasdaq index, nearly 97%. Currently, global liquidity is still growing at around 10% annually, and there’s no obvious sign of slowing down.
Next, let's look at GMI financial conditions. GMI is a set of financial environment indicators created by Global Macro Investor. It combines data like interest rates, credit spreads, the US dollar, and liquidity to assess whether financial conditions are easing or tightening. When financial conditions loosen, it means easier financing and more money in the market. Historically, this indicator tends to lead global liquidity by about 6 months. Right now, it’s still trending towards easing.
The recent market dip was actually related to a short-term factor: US total liquidity. This indicator reflects the actual money flowing within the US financial system, including fiscal spending, banking system liquidity, and Treasury accounts. Previously, due to government shutdowns and other reasons, this data was suppressed for a period, creating a liquidity gap in the market. But this indicator usually leads the crypto market by about 3 months, and it hit bottom three months ago. Now, it’s starting to rise again.
Another often overlooked variable is the business cycle. The business cycle reflects economic activity’s cooling and heating, such as corporate orders, inventories, production, and employment. When the economy accelerates, companies’ profitability improves, and markets are more willing to buy stocks, tech stocks, and risk assets like crypto. Many leading indicators now suggest the business cycle is re-accelerating.
A slightly more technical concept is eSLR. SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) is a leverage requirement in banking regulation, which basically prevents banks from unlimited lending—they need to maintain a safety cushion. eSLR is an adjustment mechanism that allows banks to hold more government bonds or extend more loans under special circumstances. When banks are more willing to expand their balance sheets, they create more credit, which is essentially a form of liquidity. This part of liquidity is also increasing now.
There are also some more everyday factors, like the US annual tax refunds. Refund money first enters bank accounts, effectively increasing deposits in the banking system. With more deposits, banks have more room to lend, boosting the system’s credit creation capacity.
China is doing something similar. Recently, the People’s Bank of China has been accelerating its balance sheet expansion, which essentially adds liquidity to the market.
The US is likely to continue cutting interest rates. Lower rates mean cheaper loans—mortgages, credit card interest, etc., may all decrease. When disposable income increases, people are more willing to invest and spend, and some of that money naturally flows into risk assets.
On the policy front, another important piece is the CLARITY Act. This bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the crypto industry. Currently, many banks and asset management firms want to participate in crypto but are hesitant due to unclear regulations. If the bill passes, it will pave the way for more traditional financial institutions to start allocating to crypto.
Stablecoins are also a significant growth point. They can be understood as blockchain-based dollars, like USDT and USDC. Many transactions, cross-border transfers, and DeFi activities rely on stablecoins. Last year, stablecoin issuance grew by about 50%, and the growth is accelerating. More stablecoins mean a larger amount of funds on the chain.
Another new variable is AI agents. In the future, many automated AI programs might directly participate in on-chain trading, payments, and service calls, creating a whole new market demand—adding a new type of user.
The biggest current issue in the market is actually sentiment. Many indicators show that the crypto market is in a rare oversold condition in history. Simply put, everyone is very panicked, and the selling has gone a bit too far.
On the technical side, there’s a tool called the DeMark indicator, used to judge when a trend might exhaust or reverse. Currently, daily and weekly signals are gradually approaching completion. If there’s a bit more downside in the next move, it could actually complete these signals and form a solid bottom.
The biggest risk factor right now is oil prices. If oil remains high for a long time, inflation pressures will rise, and central banks might be hesitant to loosen policies quickly, which could put some pressure on risk assets.
The next two weeks will be a critical observation window.
If these macro variables continue on their current trajectory, the overall environment remains relatively favorable.
So, from a big-picture perspective, many conditions are gradually improving.
The most likely overall market direction is still upward.
$BTC