#非农就业前瞻 The U.S. Department of Labor will release the February 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls report today (Friday, March 6, 2026) at 21:30 Beijing time. Due to unexpectedly strong growth in January (130,000), the market is currently highly focused on whether February's data will confirm the resilience of the labor market or show signs of slowing growth.

Key Data Forecast
According to current market consensus, the key indicators are forecasted as follows:
Non-farm employment change: Expected +60,000 to +70,000 (previous: +130,000).
Unemployment rate: Expected to remain at 4.3%.
Average hourly earnings (YoY): Expected to stay around 3.7%.
Forward-Looking Analysis
1. The "temperature difference" in forward-looking indicators—ADP data ("small non-farm"): Yesterday, ADP private sector employment added 63,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but growth was highly concentrated in healthcare and education sectors (contributing nearly 58,000 jobs), while professional services, manufacturing, and other white-collar jobs are still declining.
ISM Survey: The services PMI remains in expansion, but employment components perform modestly, indicating that companies remain cautious in hiring.
2. Risks of revision in January data
The 130,000 increase in January far exceeded the forecast of 70,000 at the time, but historical experience shows that January data often contains adjustments due to annual benchmarking. If the data released tomorrow significantly revises down January's figures, the market will reassess the depth of economic slowdown.
3. Impact on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut pricing
Stronger than expected (>100,000): Will reinforce the "economic resilience" narrative, and the market may further delay expectations for the Fed's next rate cut, which is positive for the US dollar (DXY), and negative for gold.
In line with expectations (60,000-80,000): Seen as a "Goldilocks" scenario, meaning growth is neither stalling nor triggering inflation resurgence, usually positive for the S&P 500 index.
Much weaker than expected (<40,000 or negative): Will trigger recession concerns, and the market will immediately bet on significant rate cuts in March or May, with US Treasury yields falling sharply.