Evening of March 5th Continue to maintain a high-altitude mindset

Yesterday, the crypto market staged a violent rebound, with Bitcoin soaring to around 74,000. The red candlestick instantly ignited market sentiment, causing many retail investors to become passionate and eager to chase the rally. However, the more impulsive the surge, the more we need to stay clear-headed. The 74,000 level is not only the extreme value of this rebound but also the key dividing line in the bulls and bears game.

From a technical perspective, this range gathers previous trapped positions and medium-term resistance levels. The daily MACD shows decreasing red bars, and the KDJ is overbought at high levels. The upper Bollinger Band forms strong resistance. After a quick rise, the price pulls back rapidly, with volume not expanding in tandem. Structurally, there is no effective breakout, which is essentially a typical “false rally to lure buyers.” This kind of market is most confusing: it pushes short-sellers out and entices long positions, only to likely reverse course once the sentiment subsides.

Looking at the external environment, Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz push oil prices higher, and market risk aversion fluctuates; the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March remains as high as 97.4%. The shift in rate cut expectations suppresses risk asset valuations. Although spot ETF inflows are short-term, institutional overall positioning remains cautious. Fear and greed indices are still in the “fear” zone, and funds dare not enter aggressively. In this context, it is premature to talk about trend reversal; the structure is not broken, and pressure has not eased. Bears still hold the advantage, and the rebound is likely just a better position for shorting.

Evening core strategy: Stay firmly bearish, follow the trend to short, and keep the same rhythm!

Trading suggestions
Short Bitcoin directly at 73,200-73,800, targeting around 70,000-71,000

Gradually short Ethereum around 2,150-2,180, targeting around 2,000-2,050