In the prediction market Polymarket, within the past 24 hours, the account that previously successfully predicted the assassination of Hamaney has increased its position on "US and Iran will reach a ceasefire this month," with a total investment of $64,200, an average holding price of 51.1¢, and a current price of 32¢.

The U.S. Secretary of Defense stated at today's Pentagon briefing that the U.S. military will have full control of Iranian airspace within a few days and claimed that the Iranian regime is "on the verge of collapse." When asked about China's and Russia's calls for an immediate ceasefire, Hegseth directly refused, saying it is "completely out of consideration," and indicated that military operations have no clear timetable until the goal of fully dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities is achieved.

Although Iran is attempting to "force" the U.S. back to the negotiating table and achieve a ceasefire by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking energy facilities in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. strategic goal has shifted to "regime change." Therefore, Iran's current strategy has not been effective, and the conflict is actually expanding. If a ceasefire can be achieved this month, combined with the current Bitcoin rebound, Trump's formal nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair, and other positive factors, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to return to $120,000.