Market Analysis:

Yesterday’s “oil up, crypto up, gold down” — under the threat of “energy war,” the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a surge in crude oil prices. The crypto market received capital inflows under the narrative of “digital energy,” while gold experienced a sharp decline due to the dual pressure of the US dollar, interest rates, and profit-taking.

Macro News:

1. Middle East conflicts have driven up energy prices, potentially intensifying inflationary pressures and reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer period. High interest rates typically put pressure on precious metals;

2. Previously, gold continued to rise supported by the Iran situation, accumulating large profit-taking positions. Overnight, market risk appetite briefly declined, with profit-taking funds exiting, causing a short-term plunge in gold prices, which touched a low of $4,996 per ounce. Subsequently, due to escalating Iran conflicts, safe-haven funds flowed back in;

3. Bitcoin briefly broke above $70,000 in the early hours but retreated to above $68,000 for consolidation. Against the backdrop of soaring crude oil prices, Bitcoin’s value as “digital energy” was re-evaluated by capital, attracting some funds seeking to hedge energy inflation;

4. On March 3rd, Trump’s comments about “cryptocurrency as reserve assets” triggered a short-term surge in the crypto market. However, the policy lacked a clear implementation path. Market speculation waned, and combined with the previous liquidation of leveraged long positions in BTC and ETH, it created a negative feedback loop of “decline → forced liquidation → accelerated decline.”

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Special Reminder: Buy gold on dips, hold off on crypto for now, strictly control stop-losses.