The core driver of this round of crude oil market is the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy choke point that has been directly blocked. About one-third of the world's maritime oil trade depends on this route. Once blocked, the supply logic is completely reshaped, and oil prices enter an extreme, geopolitically driven phase.

In the short term, the trend is entirely dictated by sentiment and the situation. As long as the blockade remains, and the conflict does not cool down, funds will continue to bet on supply disruptions, making oil prices more likely to rise than fall. Barclays has provided clear guidance: Brent could test $100; if the conflict spills over into Iranian oil facilities and triggers a chain reaction in the Gulf, prices could spiral out of control. The key focus on the market is WTI: breaking through and stabilizing above $80 could open up room to $85-90; a strong support on the downside is at $72-73, with a very low probability of a deep correction under current fundamentals.

The medium-term trend depends on whether the "choke point" opens or not. If the Strait resumes navigation and tensions ease, the geopolitical premium will quickly dissipate, and prices will return to rational levels after the surge. If the blockade persists, shipping reroutes and rising costs will keep the supply gap high, pushing prices higher, with high-level oscillations becoming the norm.

In the long run, recession will ultimately be priced in. Geopolitical conflicts are pulse-like events; the underlying logic is a slowdown in the global economy and weakening demand. Once the situation stabilizes, the market will refocus on fundamentals. High oil prices are unsustainable and will eventually fall back to the supply-demand equilibrium range.

Operationally, keep a close eye on the situation signals over the next 48 hours. Do not turn bearish unless key support is broken; if prices hold above $80, consider a bullish stance. Once tensions ease, be alert to rapid declines from high levels.