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🥇₿🔷 Three Assets, One Storm: Deep Analysis of Gold, Bitcoin & Ethereum | February 28, 2026 | #深度创作营

> We are at a historic breaking point. U.S.-Iran tensions have escalated, gold is hovering near record highs at $5,278, Bitcoin has fallen for five consecutive months, and Ethereum sits at a critical support level. These three assets are caught in the same storm — yet each is living a very different story.

🥇 GOLD: The Star Actor of the Fear Economy

Current Price Overview

Metric Value

Spot Price (Feb 28) $5,278/oz
April 2026 Futures $5,239/oz
January 2026 Peak $5,595/oz
1-Year Gain +$2,289 (+77%)
2025 Performance +65%
2024 Performance +28%

Gold beat the S&P 500 two consecutive years — while equities returned 25% and 18% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, gold delivered 28% and 65%. This back-to-back outperformance is rare in modern financial history. Global gold demand reached a record 5,002 tonnes in 2025, with total value surging 45% to $555 billion.

Five Layers Behind the Rally

1. Escalating U.S.-Iran Tensions: On February 28, geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran intensified, triggering immediate safe-haven flows. The risk of the Strait of Hormuz closing threatens global oil supply while pushing inflation expectations higher. Gold is always among the first to respond to geopolitical shocks.

2. Stagflation Trap: January's Core PPI surprised to the upside at 3.6% year-over-year — the highest in 11 years. Producer inflation is rising while U.S. GDP growth sits at just 1.4%. This stagflation combination is gold's ideal environment: poor growth, high inflation.

3. Central Bank Buying: Central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, with 850 tonnes projected for 2026. Russia, China, and Middle Eastern central banks are diversifying away from dollar reserves, providing structural demand that floors the price.

4. Fed Uncertainty: Powell's term ends in May 2026. Trump's expected replacement is seen as more open to rate cuts. Both the rate-cut expectation and concerns about Fed independence are net bullish signals for gold.

5. Investor Demand: Gold ETFs saw 801 tonnes of inflows in 2025, while demand for gold bars and coins reached 1,374 tonnes. Retail and institutional investors are buying simultaneously.

Price Targets

Bank of America maintains a 12-month target of $6,000. JP Morgan is more aggressive, with analysts citing institutional and central bank demand sufficient to justify $6,300. LiteFinance's model range sits at $4,914–$5,719 for now, placing gold near the upper bound for monthly close.

Short-Term Risk: Profit-Taking

Month-end profit realization, particularly in India, created selling pressure. LiteFinance positions the price at $5,107–$5,208 for the March 2 opening. Short-term consolidation looks healthy; as long as tensions persist, a break below $5,000 looks unlikely.

₿ BITCOIN: Five Months of Losses, Institutional Accumulation

Current Price Overview

Metric Value

Spot Price (Feb 28) ~$65,054
24h Range $62,964 – $68,671
February Loss -14%
October 2025 ATH $126,296
Drawdown from ATH -50%
2026 YTD Loss -27%
Weekly Change +0.60%

Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,296 in October 2025, then closed the next five consecutive months in the red. February 2026 was one of the harshest — losing 14 points to retreat to the $65,000 zone.

Technical Picture: Under Pressure but Not Broken

Bitcoin's technical setup is bearish short-term but promising medium-to-long term.

Support levels: $62,687 is the strong floor. A daily close below it opens the door to $60,000. $67,400 is the first critical threshold for a recovery attempt.

Resistance levels: $68,300 is the near-term resistance; $69,490 is the next target. A sustained close above these levels would signal a possible short-term trend reversal.

RSI: Daily at 36.67 (neutral). Monthly at 28 — Extreme Oversold. This level has historically aligned with powerful long-term entry points.

EMA Structure: BTC is trading below all five major EMAs (10, 20, 50, 100, 200-day). Being below the 200-day EMA confirms macro bearish pressure — but the monthly RSI hitting 28 signals the selling may be overdone.

Historical Pattern: CoinPedia compares the current correction cycle to the 426–427-day bear markets of 2022 and 2023. If this cycle holds, the definitive bottom targets December 2026 — meaning current levels could already be inside the accumulation zone.

Where Does the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Place Us?

The Rainbow Chart currently places Bitcoin firmly in the "BUY!" band: the $54,700–$73,700 range historically corresponds to the most optimal window for long-term accumulation. The $95,100 level marks the upper boundary of the "Accumulate" band — any price below it is considered cheap by historical standards.

The Institutional Side Hasn't Collapsed

While prices fell, institutional demand held firm. In the final three days of February, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.1 billion in net inflows — the strongest three-day accumulation in six weeks. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 (Extreme Fear), yet institutions are quietly buying. This divergence — retail fleeing while institutions accumulate — is historically one of the clearest early signals of an approaching bottom.

Scenarios

Bull case: BTC closes above $68,300 resistance, targeting $69,490 → $73,700. InvestingHaven maintains a structural long-term target of $180,000.

Bear case: A break below $62,687 opens $58,000–$60,000. If rising tensions trigger a fresh risk-off wave, this scenario could materialize in the short term.

Base case: Analytical model averages point to a $64,000–$67,000 range for late February — aligned with current price action.

🔷 ETHEREUM: Deepest Wound, Biggest Potential

Current Price Overview

Metric Value

Spot Price (Feb 28) ~$1,897 – $1,960
August 2025 ATH $4,951
Drawdown from ATH -62%
Early January 2026 ~$3,120
Daily RSI 37–44 (Neutral / near Oversold)
Market Cap ~$233–245 billion

Ethereum is the hardest hit of this cycle. After reaching its all-time high of $4,951 in August 2025, it lost 62% of its value in just six months, retreating to the $1,820–$1,900 band. While Bitcoin's peak-to-trough move is 50%, Ethereum's is 62% — altcoins always fall deeper.

Technical Picture: Technically Damaged, Fundamentally Sound

EMA Structure — All Signals Bearish:

EMA Level

20 EMA $2,221
50 EMA $2,581
100 EMA $2,888
200 EMA $3,104

ETH is trading below all five key EMAs. However, a slight bullish MACD crossover is beginning to form — though both lines remain below zero, this could be an early sign of momentum recovery.

Bollinger Band Position: ETH is trading near the lower band ($1,840). This positioning has historically set the stage for technical bounces.

Key Levels:

Strong support: $1,822 (immediate), $1,764 (deeper)

Critical resistance: $1,991, $2,103

$2,000 psychological level: The short-term trend inflection point

A large green candle of +6% from the $1,800 zone on February 25 showed buyers responding aggressively at critical support. However, the $2,100–$2,200 zone is now a heavy resistance ceiling — calling for a structural recovery before that clears is premature.

What Sets Ethereum Apart: The Fundamental Story Remains Intact

Vitalik Buterin's Roadmap: The Ethereum Foundation announced a detailed upgrade schedule of six hard forks through the end of 2029, implemented every six months. These upgrades are designed to fundamentally improve network performance — a strong signal for long-term value.

DeFi Dominance: The vast majority of total value locked (TVL) across the crypto ecosystem remains concentrated on Ethereum and its Layer-2 solutions. A significant share of stablecoin transactions, tokenized assets, and institutional DeFi flows run on Ethereum.

Staking Economy: Staking activity tightens the liquid supply of ETH. The Pectra protocol upgrade improved staking efficiency, partially offsetting supply pressure alongside institutional ETF inflows.

Institutional ETF: Ethereum ETFs continue to attract institutional interest, with periodic inflows from BlackRock and Fidelity-based products.

Scenario Analysis

Short term (1–4 weeks): First target $1,950–$2,000. Bollinger lower band proximity and oversold conditions set the stage for a technical bounce; however, if the broader market stays risk-off, this potential could be delayed.

Medium term (1–3 months): A break above $2,100–$2,200 opens the March target to the $2,268–$2,300 band. CoinCodex models a 13.88% gain over 30 days to $2,198.

Long term (end of 2026): Consensus estimates cluster in the $3,500–$6,200 range, driven by Ethereum's upgrade timeline, Layer-2 growth, and institutional adoption.

⚖️ COMPARING ALL THREE: What Is Each Asset Saying?

GOLD BITCOIN ETHEREUM

Current Price $5,278 ~$65,054 ~$1,897
Distance from ATH -6% -50% -62%
2025 Annual Return +65% -27% YTD ~-60%
Fear Indicator Safe Haven ✅ Extreme Fear 😱 Extreme Fear 😱
Short-Term Signal Neutral/Bullish Neutral/Bearish Neutral/Bearish
Long-Term Target $6,000–$6,300 $120,000–$180,000 $3,500–$6,200
Key Catalyst Geopolitics + Inflation ETF + Cycle Bottom Network Upgrade + DeFi

This table makes it clear how differently these three assets are trading even within the same storm. Gold is the short-term winner of the war economy. Bitcoin is a cyclical bottom candidate backed by institutional conviction. Ethereum carries the deepest technical damage but defends its long-term network value with the strongest arguments.

Critical Relationship: The Gold-Bitcoin Correlation Has Broken

Normally, Bitcoin moves in partial correlation with gold. That relationship has now decoupled. As gold climbed above $5,000 on rising tensions, Bitcoin fell nearly 5%. This divergence may persist in the short term. However, if the tension-driven economy begins to erode confidence in the dollar — especially if the new Fed chair pivots dovish after May 2026 — Bitcoin could re-converge with gold. Historically, prolonged distrust environments have strengthened Bitcoin; that dynamic played out clearly during the COVID months of 2020.

🧭 Conclusion: Which Asset for Which Investor?

"I want protection, not risk": Gold. The unambiguous winner on the geopolitical risk and inflation axis. The $5,000–$5,278 floor looks solid; the $6,000+ target is banking consensus.

"I'm looking for a cyclical bottom and I'm patient": Bitcoin. Institutional accumulation is ongoing, RSI signals extreme oversold, and ETF inflows are strengthening. Don't expect a big move until structural risk-off fades, but the long-term accumulation case is growing stronger.

"High risk, high potential, I believe in the technology": Ethereum. The deepest drawdown, the most ambitious network upgrade roadmap, the largest DeFi ecosystem. The $1,800–$1,900 zone is a level history won't let you ignore — but patience is required in the short term.

One unified message spans all three assets: The market is in extreme fear, institutions are accumulating, and retail is fleeing. History has validated this dynamic time and again.

This content is not financial advice. All investment decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance.