🚨 Markets are pricing in headlines faster than reality again.

Talk is spreading that Iran could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz with some narratives pushing probabilities as high as 90%. But historically, a full closure has never been sustained in modern times and most analysts argue it would be extremely difficult to maintain.

Why this matters for traders:

• Hormuz moves a huge share of global oil flows, so even risk perception can spike energy prices.

• Markets often price the fear first then reprice when logistics and military realities are reassessed.

• Oil volatility doesn’t stay isolated; it usually spills into equities, bonds and crypto risk sentiment.

For me, this is a reminder that probability ≠ outcome.

Headlines create emotion, but execution requires context.
The real edge is separating geopolitical noise from actual supply disruption.

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