Many KOLs are speculating about this year's Bitcoin bottom, with some saying 52,000, others 48,000, some 39,000, and a few below 20,000. It's still too early to guess the bottom; the monthly rebound wave hasn't even formed a prototype, let alone the bottom. Based on past bear market patterns, the typical approach is to take the highest point of the monthly rebound wave as the starting point for the next major downtrend, which usually retraces about 61%, then consolidates sideways for several months to build a bottom within a few thousand points.

There's also another method: to take the highest point of the current monthly rebound wave (starting from 59,800, the highest rebound level), cut it in half, and then the low point after halving retraces 38%. This approach is very close to the ultimate bottom.

Using these two methods, we can make some hypothetical calculations based on data. For example, if the bottom is at 27,650, and Bitcoin has retraced from its peak of 126,208 to that bottom, the total retracement is 126,208 - 27,650 = 98,558 points. The retracement ratio is 98,558 / 126,208 ≈ 0.781, or 78.1%, which aligns well with the historical adjustment ratios of 71-82% in previous bear markets.