Goldman raises Q4 oil price outlook on lower OECD stocks

FILE PHOTO: A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, U.S. February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo · Reuters

Reuters

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 4:12 PM GMT+9 2 min read

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Feb 23 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 to $60 and $56 respectively, ‌citing lower OECD stocks, even as it continued to assume no Iran-related ‌supply disruption and maintained its view of a surplus this year.

For the year, it now expects Brent ​to average $64 a barrel, up from $56 previously, and WTI to average $60, up from $52.

Oil prices fell about 1% on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict.

Brent crude futures were trading around $71 a ‌barrel at 0641 GMT, while ⁠U.S. WTI crude futures were at $65.75 a barrel.

In a note dated Sunday, Goldman said its $60 Brent price forecast reflected a gradual fading ⁠of a $6 risk premium estimate assuming that geopolitical tensions ease and a $5 decline in the fair value price on rising stocks in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The bank ​maintained its ​2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels ​per day (bpd), assuming no major supply ‌disruption and no Russia-Ukraine peace.

The bank said its 2026 surplus reflects offsetting 0.2 million bpd downgrades to supply and demand on slightly softer growth in Asia.

The bank downgraded its 2026 supply outlook for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq due to realized production misses, while it upgraded supply expectations for the Americas and in core OPEC countries ‌with spare capacity.

The bank said it expects OPEC+ ​to begin gradually increasing production in the second quarter ​of 2026, given that OECD ​inventories have not built up.

Goldman, however, expects downside risks of $5 for ‌Brent and $8 for WTI for the fourth ​quarter of 2026 if ​potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates landed stock builds and unlocks higher supply in the longer term.

It expects Brent and WTI to average $65 ​and $61, respectively, in 2027 and ‌to rise to $70 and $66 by December 2027 on the back of solid ​demand and slowing supply growth.

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru, additional reporting ​by Swati Verma; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus)

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