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What is the core logic behind Nvidia driving a crash in the US stock market?
Many people are confused about why Nvidia's earnings are positive, yet the stock price dropped after the market opened last night.
Recently, everyone's discussions have not truly understood the recent AI panic wave, nor the real pressure it has brought to Nvidia.
According to current media reports, the market's AI panic essentially stems from the sustainability of huge capital investments in the AI industry, and Nvidia is the biggest beneficiary of this wave of capital injection. In other words, the market is questioning the sustainability of Nvidia's revenue growth, or doubting the reasonableness of this revenue surge model.
Nvidia's H200 chips are currently the preferred training hardware in the AI industry, but the capacity of H200 is limited. Therefore, the selling price depends entirely on Jensen Huang's asking price, and Nvidia's performance seems justifiable regardless of how high it is driven.
However, the real issue comes from Nvidia's customers.
How much Nvidia can actually earn depends entirely on how much its customers are willing to pay, and Nvidia has always maintained a very low tolerance for credit sales, with accounts receivable always just over 10% of total revenue. As long as Jensen Huang does not relax his credit policies, if customers' cash flow becomes tight, Nvidia's revenue will immediately be affected.
Currently, AI development companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are facing a dilemma where capital expenditure and revenue growth are not proportional, raising doubts about the excessive capital investment in AI development.
If AI companies themselves cannot turn a profit and no one is willing to fund their expansion, Nvidia will immediately lose its biggest customers, and clearing the computing power will take time. Nvidia will also face long-term revenue decline.
Now, Nvidia's net profit has surged dramatically, which is completely counterproductive for the market because it indirectly confirms that the capital expenditure in the AI industry is excessive. The better Nvidia performs, the louder the market's doubts become.
How profitable Nvidia actually is no longer matters much, because its customers can't even manage their electricity consumption. Buying chips is just collecting dust, and Nvidia's high growth performance clearly lacks sustainability.
So everyone should understand why Nvidia's positive earnings report caused its stock price to fall instead.
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