This week's (February 20-26, 2026) cryptocurrency market summary: a strong rebound from the 2026 lows, risk sentiment has improved but caution is still needed.

#In-Depth Creation Camp

As a top crypto expert and financial analyst, my market outlook for this week is: Early pressure and bottoming out, followed by a significant rebound driven by macro positive factors and capital inflows. The entire February remains a brutal “Blood Moon” (BTC monthly decline approaching 25%), but in the second half of this week (especially on the 25th-26th), the market suddenly turned stronger, with total market capitalization rebounding from lows, ending the week with slight positive returns. Bitcoin dominance stabilized around 58%, while altcoins performed better in this rebound, indicating funds are shifting from defensive to offensive.

1. Core Data on Price and Market Cap (After US Market Close on February 26)

• Total Crypto Market Cap: approximately $2.35 trillion (+4.23% in 24h, roughly +3-5% net recovery over 7 days, escaping midweek lows)
• Bitcoin (BTC): $68,300-$68,600 range. Early in the week, it briefly fell below $63,000 (a new low since 2026), fluctuated between $64,000-$65,000 midweek, surged over 6% on the 25th, but failed to reach $70,000 on the 26th. The week closed with a modest gain of about 1.5-2.5%. Volatility exceeded 10% during the week.
• Ethereum (ETH): $2,053-$2,065. Outperformed BTC, with weekly gains of about 5.4-7.8%. It dipped near $1,850 midweek, then surged over 10% on the 25th-26th, clearly outperforming the broader market.
• Top 10 Altcoins (7-day performance, CoinMarketCap data):
  • Solana (SOL): +7.28%
  • Cardano (ADA): +6.80%
  • XRP: +2.37%
  • BNB: +3.34%
  • Dogecoin (DOGE): +1.26%
  • Stablecoins (USDT/USDC): basically flat (0.03-0.05%)

CoinDesk 20 Index gained about 5.28% this week, led by Layer1 projects like Polkadot (DOT) +17.2%, Avalanche (AVAX) +12.9%, and several meme coins (SIREN, NEET, etc.) saw explosive short-term gains over 100%.

2. Core Drivers of This Week

Positive Catalysts (Main reasons for the rebound):

• Risk appetite rebounded macro-wise: Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations (revenue $68B, guidance $78B), boosting AI-related risk assets. US stocks rose for three consecutive days, with the Nasdaq up over 1%.
• Policy/Tariff Relief: The Trump administration’s partial rollback of tariffs (6-3 vote) eased a major macro headwind since April 2025. The narrowing of the US-Japan long-term yield spread also reduced yen carry trade pressures.
• Capital Flow Shift: Spot Bitcoin ETF ended five weeks of net outflows, with a single-day inflow exceeding $500 million on the 25th, indicating institutional re-entry. XRP ETF inflows also pushed its price above $1.37.
• Technical Liquidation: Midweek extreme fear (Fear & Greed index hit 16). Massive leveraged long liquidations followed by short covering and retail buying created positive feedback.

Negative/Background Pressures (Not fully eliminated):

• February remains in a five-month downtrend (since BTC’s all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, halved).
• Geopolitical tensions persist (US-Iran escalation).
• Some miners (like Bitdeer) have liquidated BTC holdings to zero, indicating continued deleveraging among institutions.
• Regulatory noise: UK FCA’s stablecoin pilot, US Senate investigation into Binance Iran funds, SEC conflicts with Unicoin, etc.

3. Market Sentiment and Structural Observations

• BTC dominance: 58%, neutral to slightly high, indicating funds still anchored in BTC, but altcoins show higher beta in this rebound, reflecting a “risk appetite recovery.”
• On-chain/Derivatives: Stablecoin market cap remains above $300 billion. ETH daily active addresses and transaction volume continue rising due to the Fusaka upgrade. Options skew remains slightly defensive, but funding rates have turned positive.
• Sector Rotation: AI + Layer1 and meme coins lead the rally; DeFi and GameFi remain relatively lagging.

4. Key Technical Levels and Next Week Outlook

• BTC: Short-term support at $65,000-$66,000, resistance at $70,000-$72,000. Breaking above $70k could confirm weekly reversal; dropping below $63k might test $55k-$60k again.
• ETH: Support at $1,900, resistance at $2,100-$2,200. ETH/BTC ratio has stopped falling and is rebounding; watch for a break above 0.0305.
• Overall view: This week’s rebound is a “oversold correction in a bear market,” not the start of a new bull. Macro factors to watch include the Fed’s March meeting (rate cut expectations delayed) and US government shutdown risks. If tariffs are fully eased and ETF inflows continue, total market cap could challenge $2.5 trillion next week; if US stocks pull back or geopolitical tensions flare, a secondary dip is likely.

Investment Advice (Risk warning: Crypto markets are highly volatile, for reference only):

• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Consider moderate long positions on BTC/ETH, with stop-loss below 5% of weekly lows, target $70k/$2.1k.
• Medium-term: Continue to monitor altcoin rotation, but keep position sizes under 30%.
• Long-term: Current prices are roughly halved from 2025 highs; high-quality projects and dollar-cost averaging remain solid core strategies.

This week’s market shift from “extreme fear” to “cautious optimism” is a classic pattern—each major dip tends to overshoot and rebound, but a true bull turn requires macro confirmation.