0226 Bitcoin Daily Report#加密市场反弹

After attempting to break the $70,000 mark yesterday, Bitcoin continues to consolidate around $68,500. Will this rebound hold steady, or will it be like previous quick rebounds that come and go rapidly? This phenomenon is at the core of market divergence.

Yesterday, over $400 million in short positions were liquidated. This upward movement is interpreted by the market as a dip-buying behavior following a period of sustained selling. If Bitcoin can break above $70,000, there may be a story to tell, but currently, nearly 45% of Bitcoin holders have a higher average purchase cost, which puts pressure on the price to rise and weakens upward momentum. As a result, traders are mainly paying more for put options to protect against a crash.

From a technical perspective: Overall, Bitcoin is attempting its first strong rebound since the January sell-off. The current focus is on whether it can reach the $70,200 to $70,500 range and whether a key turning point will occur. If it closes above this range, the short-term target for Bitcoin will shift higher to around $74,300. From a trading standpoint, if the downward trend since October remains valid, the rebound should be limited to around $76,200; otherwise, it could be a larger corrective rebound within a broader downtrend. Conversely, to trigger the next decline, a close below $62,800 is needed.