2026 Gold Price Outlook: The Reasons Behind the Surge in Investment Demand Amid Economic Uncertainty

As we approach 2026, there is an asset that investors are increasingly focusing on: gold. Last year, gold prices surged sharply due to economic uncertainty and escalating geopolitical risks, and this strong trend has continued into the early part of this year. While major global financial institutions have differing opinions on the outlook for gold prices, what will the trend look like in 2026?

Experts’ Outlook for Gold Prices in 2026: Leading Optimism

Most international financial institutions have a generally positive outlook for gold in 2026. Looking at predictions from global investment banks, there is a consensus that the upward trend is likely to continue.

JPMorgan forecasts that gold could reach around $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026. This represents a significant increase from the beginning of the year. Goldman Sachs shares a similar view, suggesting there is room for further gains in gold prices through mid-2026. Notably, HSBC has the most optimistic forecast, estimating that gold could hit $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. However, HSBC also warns that such gains could come with increased price volatility, advising caution.

Overall, the general consensus among experts is that there is a high likelihood of additional gains in gold prices during the first half and mid-2026. However, some perspectives suggest potential price corrections after the second half of the year, so proper risk management strategies are essential for investors.

Key Factors Driving the Surge in Gold Prices

If last year’s rise in gold was driven by structural changes rather than temporary factors, then the current economic and geopolitical shifts should also be closely monitored for their impact on gold. Let’s analyze the main factors influencing gold prices.

1. Geopolitical Instability and Increased Safe-Haven Demand

Historically, gold becomes especially attractive during times of heightened economic uncertainty. Currently, the global stage is fraught with multiple geopolitical risks.

Tensions between the US and China, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, and instability in the Middle East are all ongoing. In such environments, investors tend to flock to gold as a store of value. Historical examples include the significant rise in gold during the 2008 global financial crisis, the surge during the European debt crisis in 2011, and the record highs during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These patterns suggest that similar reactions could occur amid today’s international instability.

2. De-dollarization Trends and Changes in Monetary Policy

The movement to reduce dependence on the US dollar in international trade and finance—de-dollarization—is accelerating. This trend provides a structural backdrop for rising gold prices.

China is actively promoting the international use of the yuan, expanding its use in trade with major partners. Simultaneously, various countries are establishing currency swap agreements to strategically lower reliance on the dollar. India is also pushing to increase the use of the rupee in international transactions. These de-dollarization efforts aim to strengthen economic sovereignty and circumvent US sanctions, which in turn boost demand for alternative assets like gold.

The spread of de-dollarization policies is likely to lead to increased demand for gold, as countries seek to diversify their reserves and reduce dollar dependence. This can support gold prices in the medium term.

3. Central Bank Monetary Policies and Rate Cuts

There is an inverse relationship between gold and interest rates. When rates are cut, the appeal of interest-bearing assets like deposits and bonds diminishes, making holding gold relatively more attractive.

More importantly, rate cuts often signal concerns about economic slowdown or recession. Such signals increase economic uncertainty, prompting capital flows into safe assets like gold. When central banks lower benchmark rates, it reflects worries about economic health, which tends to accelerate investment in gold as a safe haven.

Current Status and Figures for Early 2026 Gold Prices

Recently, gold prices have been at quite high levels. As of the beginning of this year, domestic gold prices reached 952,000 won per 3.75 grams (one “don”), a roughly 76% increase from the same period last year’s 541,000 won. This is an exceptionally rapid rise over a very short period.

International gold prices have also shown significant gains, rising about 5.85% since the start of the year and approximately 37.97% over the past six months. These figures, even in just February, provide a basis for an optimistic outlook on future gold prices.

Considerations for Investors

While the overall outlook for gold in 2026 is positive, all investments carry risks. Experts do not completely rule out corrections after the second half of 2026. Therefore, investors should keep the following in mind:

• Proper Position Management: Although the consensus is that gold will continue to rise, not all predictions will come true. Carefully determine your investment size and avoid excessive leverage.

• Monitor Geopolitical Risks and Economic Indicators: Gold prices are highly sensitive to global economic conditions. Staying informed about key economic data and international developments is crucial.

• Consider a Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy: Rather than investing all at once based on optimistic forecasts, gradually building positions can help mitigate volatility risks.

Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years. With a positive outlook for 2026, how investors incorporate it into their portfolios will depend on careful judgment and strategic planning.