Danger ahead, be cautious and stay alert

Regarding the recent market situation, the logic has already been explained. It is triggered by war themes, which were discussed in yesterday’s full-day analysis and today’s midday review. However, the escalation of war may be sudden; that is, if the war actions against Iran do not end quickly within a very short period, the value of this war will be limited. For Trump, it is also unlikely to allow such a situation. The continuation of the war direction may also be quite sudden; if expectations are fulfilled, the market may also follow suit. This is a current characteristic of the market, similar to the robot and movie sectors during the Spring Festival. There are many such examples in the A-shares market, so it’s important to stay alert at all times. This is also a common reason for small-position trading, though profit-driven trading never goes out of style. [Taoguba]

Today’s market shows that major players are still intervening to some extent. For example, today’s batch of stocks breaking off the board suggests that tomorrow might still resemble previous market patterns. The switch may happen as early as tomorrow. Don’t be overly happy if the market turns red; there might still be opportunities if it turns green. Overall, the current market is in a state of extreme tug-of-war, unlikely to see a single line dominate like last year’s commercial aerospace sector. This reflects the current grasp of the market’s main forces.

Regarding the war theme, it may not be a straightforward development and could encounter some twists. However, there is still significant capital involved, especially in commodities like bulk materials, gold, silver, minor metals, and chemical raw materials such as pesticides and fertilizers, which are all active in the futures markets. Most chemical raw materials come from oil, which is a key factor in the potential for war with Iran. If war breaks out, crude oil prices could soar; if not, we’ll see. As for the ongoing trade war escalation and the evolving Iran situation, small metals still have room to rise.

This direction is based on a relatively solid logic: both hot and cold wars are necessary. However, many factors interfere with the trade war’s trajectory. For example, the German Chancellor, the UK Prime Minister, and the French President are all visiting China, and U.S. President Trump is expected to visit in late March or early April. Therefore, the trade war will continue in a friendly atmosphere and could be unlocked at any time. The diplomatic and trade tensions form a pattern of political coldness and economic heat, but this pattern will eventually be broken. If a market rally occurs, it’s likely to last until the end of March.

There are many targets in this area, each driven by different logic. For instance, back in November last year, a mid-term value target was mentioned: $Eastern Tantalum (sz000962). It has nearly doubled since then, but the trend still seems to be strengthening and accelerating. Today, it hit the daily limit-up, and there may be ultra-short-term opportunities ahead. Of course, if the trade war persists, rare earths are also likely to reach new highs. For example, $Northern Rare Earth (sh600111) is close to its previous high. If it breaks through, opportunities may arise.

The outlook on the war theme is comprehensive. The only uncertainty is when it will start and end. However, the existing tech sector has not yet run its full course, which is quite certain. This includes rockets, satellites, communications, and AI. Each of these areas is very broad. For example, AI includes applications, hardware, and chips, which are expected to grow rapidly. Other AI directions are emerging constantly. The expectations are progressing rhythmically, but the timing is uncertain and depends on the market. Today, another wave of commercial aerospace stocks appeared, but whether this continues is uncertain. What is certain is that this sector remains active, with stocks like $Zai Sheng Technology (sh603601)$ and $Hanlan Co., Ltd. (sz002498)$ already hitting multiple daily limits. So, this sector is not finished.

Although a lot has been discussed above, the general idea is to let this trend continue, but not to let the rise go on endlessly. Targets with clear certainty can rise amid fluctuations, but not all at once. The goal is a slow, steady rise rather than a rapid surge. Under this basic logic, ultra-short-term gains are much smaller than medium- and long-term gains. Therefore, it’s important to keep a rolling focus on logical targets.

Currently, the market is complex and constantly evolving. Many insights are continuously being interpreted. If something is unclear, review previous posts and midday reviews. The current market is not like the previous commercial aerospace boom, where stocks could rise simply by being associated with the theme. Now, association alone doesn’t guarantee gains. For example, Hanlan Co. hit the daily limit-up today, but there are also many stocks in the green or even hitting the floor. If you cannot find signs of major institutional support, even correct stocks may find it difficult to hit the limit-up, and some may even hit the floor.

That’s all for today. Please remember to like, comment, and tip Cui Bo. Thanks to @SkyFly’s Floor, @KongShanBuJianXue, @KongTang123, @kevintian525, @一路向阳一路长虹, @FuNiuWang, @JuBaoPen111, @Kkkkkkkk8, and @HisYang for tipping and encouraging. Thank you.

Keep going!