Nvidia's revenue is expected to surpass expectations for 14 consecutive quarters, with multiple institutions optimistic that the AI rally will continue until 2027

On February 25th, NVIDIA will release its 2025 financial report after the US stock market closes tonight (5 a.m. Beijing time). As a leading indicator for AI and US stocks, and the world’s most valuable company by market capitalization, NVIDIA’s performance will undoubtedly influence global financial assets. The market is highly focused on its data center business growth, Blackwell GPU shipments, and outlook for next quarter. Currently, market expectations are cautiously optimistic, with consensus anticipating strong growth and the 14th consecutive quarter of beating expectations. The Q4 revenue is expected to be between $65 billion and $66 billion, a year-over-year increase of 65%-68%, with data center revenue expected to contribute over $60 billion. NVIDIA previously provided an official revenue guidance of $65 billion ± 2% in its November outlook. Earnings per share (EPS) consensus is $1.50-$1.53, up 70%-72% year-over-year, with gross margin expected to remain around 70%.

The market’s main focus is on the outlook for next quarter, which will depend on demand for Blackwell and Rubin chips. Currently, the consensus for Q1 FY2027 revenue is $71 billion to $73 billion, a year-over-year increase of 63%-64%.

Key institutional views on tonight’s earnings report include: Morgan Stanley is highly optimistic about NVIDIA’s Q4 performance, expecting revenue to surpass the forecast by at least $2 billion, exceeding $67 billion. They are very confident in the full-year and future prospects, believing AI demand shows no signs of slowing, and expect the stock price to continue rising, with a target price of $250. Bank of America has set the highest Wall Street target price for NVIDIA at $275, rating it as a buy. They are optimistic about Blackwell and future product sales, expecting sustained strong demand. Citibank recommends buying before the earnings release today, with Q4 revenue forecast at $67 billion and Q1 guidance at $73 billion. Citi is optimistic about the ramp-up of B300 and Rubin production in the second half of 2026, expecting H2 sales to grow by 34%. They also believe the March GTC conference will be a key catalyst for AI outlook over the next two years, with a target price of $270 and an expected 43% upside. According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability that NVIDIA (NVDA) will beat the quarterly earnings estimate of $1.52 per share on the prediction market Polymarket is as high as 92%.