The dollar to Egyptian pound maintains its stability amid positive economic data in 2026

In a scene reflecting increasing confidence in the Egyptian economy, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Egyptian pound continues to stabilize at relatively steady levels, supported by noticeable improvements in economic indicators and foreign capital inflows. Analysts indicate that this balance does not reflect a temporary halt but rather the real results of ongoing monetary policies and structural reforms over several consecutive quarters.

Market Balance Supports the Exchange Rate at 47 Pounds

The spot exchange rate between the dollar and the Egyptian pound has moved within a narrow range in the recent weeks of February, stabilizing around 47 pounds. Data from major banks such as the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr show a significant convergence in buy and sell prices, indicating a substantial decrease in speculative activity within the market.

Experts attribute this relative calm to two main factors: first, a noticeable improvement in the net foreign assets of the banking sector, and second, increased attractiveness of real returns on local dollar investments, which has encouraged foreign funds to stay in Egyptian markets rather than withdraw.

Dollar liquidity in official channels remains steady, with no sudden fluctuations typical of traders under pressure. Private banks like CIB and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank also show nearly identical levels, reflecting no real price gaps between the official and parallel markets.

International Institutions Expect the Pound to Remain Stable Throughout the Year

Positive forecasts from major global financial institutions continue to support an optimistic outlook for the Egyptian pound’s trajectory in 2026.

Fitch Solutions estimates that the exchange rate will likely stay within 47 to 49 pounds throughout the year, linking this stabilization to successful approval of economic reform programs and receipt of new international funding tranches. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered’s forecasts adopt more conservative scenarios, expecting the dollar to reach 47.5 pounds by the end of Q1, with inflation declining to around 12%.

The International Monetary Fund emphasizes the importance of managed exchange rate flexibility as a tool to protect against external economic shocks, projecting growth acceleration to 5.4% in the upcoming fiscal year (2026-2027).

Key Economic Data Reinforces Investor Confidence

Official statistical data has boosted market sentiment. GDP grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, surpassing the expectations of some analysts who doubted the economy’s ability to sustain this momentum after years of decline.

The Suez Canal has regained significant shipping activity, with increased vessel transits and related revenues. This provides additional cash coverage to meet external obligations. Additionally, tourism revenue flows have rapidly rebounded, contributing to improved national financial stability.

Potential Challenges and Supporting Factors

Despite the positive outlook, several risks cannot be ignored. External debt repayments pose periodic liquidity pressures, especially during global financial crises. However, the accelerated government privatization program and attraction of Gulf direct investments may offset this pressure.

Analysts closely monitor the government’s ability to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, as this step strongly signals continued recovery and financial stability.

Technical Analysis: Moving Averages and RSI Signals

A detailed look at technical indicators reveals a balanced picture reflecting a tug-of-war between buying and selling forces. The current price trades within a narrow range, indicating a consolidation phase ahead of a directional move.

Examining moving averages, the price is currently below the 50-day simple moving average (around 47.45 pounds), which provides a short-term positive signal for the pound. This shorter average is approaching a bearish crossover with the longer 200-day moving average, a technical sign that could reinforce prospects for the pound to strengthen toward 46 pounds if positive investment flows persist.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 42, placing it in a neutral zone close to oversold conditions for the dollar. This suggests a lack of strong buying pressure to push the dollar higher, while selling momentum remains stable and sustainable.

Support and Resistance Levels: The Roadmap for Investors

Support and resistance levels are key points monitored by market participants. On the resistance side, the first level is at 47.80 pounds, which the dollar needs to surpass to regain upward momentum. The second resistance is at 48.50 pounds, where a break could indicate a fundamental shift in the local currency outlook.

On the support side, the 46.80-pound level is a strong psychological and technical support, having bounced multiple times in recent weeks. If this level is broken, the pound may head toward 45.50 pounds, especially if additional positive macroeconomic data support this move.

Future Outlook and Summary

The exchange rate between the dollar and the Egyptian pound appears to be in a relatively strong technical and fundamental position. As long as trading remains below the key resistance zone at 47.80, the overall trend favors the local currency.

The relative calm in the RSI supports the idea that any upcoming movement will be gradual and smooth, not driven by sudden shocks. Continued investment inflows and positive economic data give the pound strong fundamental momentum.

Given current dynamics, it is expected that the dollar and the Egyptian pound will maintain this managed balance throughout the remaining months of the year, with a potential gradual improvement in the local currency’s value if supporting factors continue to operate effectively.