Historical buy signal flashes? BTC Ahr999 indicator drops below 0.3, returning to the lows of February 6

As the crypto market continues to face pressure recently, a widely watched indicator among hodlers has sent a rare signal again. According to Coinglass data, on February 25th, Bitcoin’s Ahr999 index dropped to 0.29, not only significantly below the “bottom-fishing line” at 0.45 but also approaching the lows seen earlier this month.

Just a few days prior, on February 6th, this indicator dipped to a low of 0.27. Now, with the Ahr999 index returning to this range, it has sparked widespread discussion about whether the “bottom” has already arrived. As of press time, data from Gate shows BTC at $65,817.35, with high volatility over the past 24 hours, as the market continues to digest macro sentiment and on-chain data changes.

What does it mean when the Ahr999 indicator falls below the bottom-fishing line?

Created by long-term Bitcoin investor ahr999 (Nine Gods), this indicator aims to assist dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investors in making strategic decisions. Its core logic implicitly considers two dimensions: the “short-term return on Bitcoin DCA” and the “deviation of current price from expected valuation.”

Typically, the usage logic is quite clear:

• Ahr999 < 0.45: “Bottom-fishing zone,” indicating the price is severely undervalued relative to its long-term valuation and DCA costs.
• 0.45 ≤ Ahr999 ≤ 1.2: “DCA zone,” suitable for planned purchases.
• Ahr999 > 1.2: “Watch zone,” indicating the price is high and not ideal for action.

This time, with the index dropping to 0.29, it’s not only in the bottom-fishing zone but also entering a rare “deep cold” territory in its history. Data shows that throughout Bitcoin’s history, the Ahr999 index has been below the bottom line (0.45) for only 572 days, highlighting the current market sentiment’s extreme pessimism.

Historical review: what happened when Ahr999 fell below 0.3?

Historical data often provides the most direct reference. The recent drop below 0.3 immediately recalls several key events in the last bear cycle.

In the previous bear market:

• On June 18, 2022, amid the “ETH liquidation crash,” market panic intensified, and the Ahr999 index fell below 0.3.
• On November 22, 2022, after the “FTX black swan” event, market trust collapsed, and the indicator again dipped below 0.3.

Both moments later proved to be “golden pits” with high value during that bear cycle. Although the market did not immediately V-recover after breaking 0.3 and might continue to linger at lows, for long-term hodlers, this area represents the “left side of the smile curve” in a dollar-cost averaging strategy.

Current market environment: institutional accumulation vs. time cost game

While the indicator signals a historic bottom-fishing opportunity, the macro environment now differs somewhat from the past. According to Gate’s aggregated data, the current market shows a complex game:

1. Institutional accumulation at lows: During Bitcoin’s recent correction, about 400,000 BTC were absorbed in the $60,000–$70,000 range. This indicates that despite retail panic, institutional funds show strong buying interest at relatively low levels, providing potential cost support for future rallies.
2. Regional demand weakness: The US demand indicator for Bitcoin has been negative for 40 consecutive days, setting a record. This reflects that macro policies and regulatory expectations have temporarily dampened US market absorption.
3. Time cost concerns: Although the immediate impact of the price correction has eased, the time cost still troubles short-term traders. This suggests that even if the indicator signals a bottom, the market may need a prolonged sideways period to digest uncertainty.

How to respond to the current bottom-fishing signals on Gate?

When facing the Ahr999 signal, investors should avoid blindly “going all-in” and instead consider their own strategies rationally. Gate offers various tools to navigate the current environment:

1. Stick to DCA: Since the Ahr999 indicator is designed for DCA, at 0.29, DCA users need not worry about pinpointing the exact bottom. They can initiate or increase their DCA plans on Gate, accumulating more at current lows to average down costs.
2. Use grid trading to capture volatility: Bottom regions often feature sharp oscillations. Using Gate’s “spot grid” or “futures grid” strategies, traders can profit from buy low/sell high within sideways markets, reducing average costs even if prices don’t rise immediately.
3. Monitor funding rates: During strong bottom-fishing sentiment, be cautious of derivatives market risks. Keep a close eye on funding rates on Gate to avoid losses caused by extreme market sentiment and high funding costs.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s Ahr999 index falling below 0.3 and approaching the February 6th low marks not just a numerical change but an extreme collision of market sentiment and long-term value. Historical experience shows that this zone is often a critical period for rational investors to overcome panic and execute long-term strategies.

Despite macro pressures like weak US demand, Bitcoin’s long-term value is gradually emerging around the $65,000 mark (latest Gate quote). For users who believe in Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, now is not the time for blind panic but for strategic planning and disciplined execution.