Who is stronger in the price increase?! Who will emerge from the chaotic cycle?

The market on the first day after the holiday exhibited an extremely strange phenomenon. Just when sentiment was warming up, the stock that had advanced five consecutive boards before the holiday,掌阅, opened with a halt and quickly hit the limit down. The highly anticipated AI/robotic intelligent agents during the holiday experienced widespread negative feedback! Instead, the market mood and gains over the past two days were led by oil, gas, chemicals, precious metals, and major tech hardware influenced by yellow hair. Why did this happen? What is the underlying logic behind this phenomenon? [Taogu Ba]
From a cyclical perspective, the market is divided into the old cycle and the new cycle. The old includes robots, AI, and commercial aerospace that rose before the holiday. The new is the oil, gas, and chemical sector that emerged yesterday. Why is that? The last trading day before the holiday, February 13, was a divergence exhaustion point, a freezing point. The market sentiment warming on February 24 is highly probable, a time when funds are rushing in. Do you still remember the robot and Deepseek rally starting on February 5 last year? The logic is the same. In summary, the old is accelerating to clear out, and the new is just beginning! On February 24, we saw major tech hardware stocks like Changfei Optical Fiber hitting the daily limit, Yellow River Cyclone hitting the limit, and Fenghua High-tech hitting the limit. The chemical sector’s phosphorus concept and basic chemical raw materials also hit the daily limit in bulk. Why these? Because they are all price-increasing! The biggest declines and limit-downs were in AI, film, TV, movies, and robots, which were driven by expectations before the holiday. Why? When news is realized, it becomes a negative signal.
Price increases fall into two categories: one is hardware from major tech companies, such as fiber optics, glass fibers, electronic fabrics, diamonds, and tungsten drills. Among them, Changfei Optical Fiber and Honghe Technology are core, driving the trend forward. The other is influenced by the unreliable Tutu’s impact on Iran, affecting raw materials, chemicals, and precious metals, which further pushed the small metal prices up today. Understanding the concept of price increases helps explain the underlying logic of the market movements over the past two days after the holiday. Do you remember the post on February 11: “The AI industry chain is not about large models but hardware! Stick to chemicals and photovoltaics, there’s still profit. Hotspots depend on three days, with the 321 echelon”? That’s a big-picture view! I’ve never thought that a stock hitting the limit or multiple consecutive limit-ups automatically means a new theme is established! For example, on the last trading day before the holiday, I didn’t go into掌阅, which was stuck at a divergence before the holiday and was about to advance five boards. Normally, after such a sentiment shift, it should have advanced, but unfortunately, the entire sector’s negative feedback was too strong. If I had entered before the holiday, even with direct bidding, it would have been crushed on the first day after the holiday!
Currently, the market’s previous high is five boards. From the sentiment cycle perspective, February 13 was the divergence exhaustion point, and February 24 was the sentiment turning point, a key node. Yesterday, the first trading day after the holiday, saw a high success rate of initial limit-ups, with four in major tech sectors and seven in oil, gas, and chemicals. I continued with the pre-holiday thinking, buying into the electric grid on the first day after the holiday because, regardless of hardware, power is needed, and the core is the power grid. Today, I also bought chemical raw materials instead of major tech hardware. Why? Because major tech hardware is too fragmented, has already risen for over half a year, and is at a relatively high position. Since late June last year, the first phase of hardware price increases was driven by domestic substitution, represented by Yizhongtian in optical modules. The second phase was driven by the AI development leading to an arms race in computing power, spreading from chip companies like Jintonghai to fiber optics like Changfei, and further to liquid cooling by Roman, glass fiber, electronic fabric by Honghe Technology, and tungsten drills by Jiangwuzhuang. These have been rising in waves, especially Changfei, which is accelerating and carries high risk.
In contrast, the chemical sector is clearer, including basic chemicals, agricultural phosphorus chemicals, and organic chemicals (coal chemicals, methanol). Additionally, the chemical sector was mentioned multiple times before the holiday as a cyclic sector, and its appearance on the first trading day after the holiday resonated with market sentiment. I believe these are the main sectors initiating the new sentiment cycle.
Limit-up echelon:
Five boards: Yueneng Holdings, an old star from 2020’s New Year, focusing on power storage and computing participation.
Four boards: Hanlan Co., Ltd., with the limit related to power and the national grid’s ultra-high voltage 155 plan, also a direction for power exports.
Three boards (2 stocks):
Roman Co., Ltd., computing liquid cooling hardware.
Fasheng, a risk stock, skipped.
Two boards (14 stocks):
Chengxing Co., Ltd., phosphorus chemicals.
Six countries chemical: phosphorus chemicals, coal chemicals.
Jinzhongda: phosphorus chemicals.
Hebang Biological: mineral resources, phosphorus chemicals.
Yuntianhua: phosphorus chemicals, coal chemicals.
Jinpuzhiyang: titanium dioxide.
Jiangwuzhuang: tungsten drills, major tech hardware.
Fenghua High-tech: AI server chips, MLCC (called the rice of the electronics industry), extending into electronic components—feels like there’s no more to dig.
Zai Sheng Technology: glass fiber, electronic fabric.
Shikong Technology: storage chips, advancing from previous equity acquisitions and restructuring. The boss is good, unlike Jinfu, which is shameless.
Intercontinental Oil & Gas: oil and gas, influenced by news.
COSCO Shipping: oil transportation.
Yufan Technology: new stock, underground pipelines, with the NDRC head indicating an addition of 700,000 km of underground pipelines during the 155 plan, with an investment scale exceeding 5 trillion yuan.
Zhengzhong Design: AI architectural design.

Current holdings:
One stock in the second-to-third tier electric grid sector, which advanced on the second day after the holiday; one stock in the second tier chemical raw materials sector, which also advanced.