Michael Saylor's "Valley of Despair": Analyzing Apple's Stock Price Retreat and the Long-Term Compound Interest Logic of BTC

The recent cryptocurrency market has entered a period of oscillation and adjustment. Bitcoin’s price hovers around the $65,000 mark, triggering widespread investor anxiety. However, Bitcoin holdings giant Strategy founder Michael Saylor views the current situation as a classic “despair valley.” In his opinion, this mirrors the epic retracement of Apple in 2013, and the true long-term compounding logic is hidden precisely within these seemingly hopeless price lows.

Apple’s “Despair Valley”: A Forgotten Legendary Retracement

Today, when Apple is at its peak, few remember its darkest moment in 2013. Michael Saylor has mentioned this history multiple times in recent interviews. At that time, Apple’s stock price fell by as much as 45% from its high, and its P/E ratio briefly dropped below 10. Market sentiment generally believed that this innovation-starved company, supported only by cash cow products, had no future.

However, history proved this was just a “despair valley” in the growth journey of tech stocks. Apple’s stock took about seven years (2013-2020) to fully recover its valuation through re-pricing and to start a new epic bull market. Saylor uses this example to illustrate: almost all successful tech investments must endure a 45% or even larger retracement. This is not a sign of failure but a necessary process to eliminate short-term speculators and solidify long-term value.

Bitcoin in the “Now”: Intertextuality of Data and History

Looking at the current Bitcoin market, the situation is quite similar. As of February 25, 2026, according to Gate data, Bitcoin, after a deep correction, rebounded above $66,000, with the current price slightly retreating to $65,500. Previously, Bitcoin’s retracement from its all-time high approached 45%, lasting for 137 days.

Saylor predicts this retracement cycle could last two to three years, or even up to seven years. He believes that the profound market structure changes—such as the shift of derivatives trading from offshore platforms to regulated U.S. markets—have suppressed two-way volatility, reducing what could have been an 80% extreme retracement to a 40-50% range. This means that the current “despair valley” may be milder than any in history, but for highly leveraged or impatient investors, the impact remains significant.

The Starting Point of Compound Interest: Institutional Greed at the Bottom of the “Despair Valley”

The true long-term compounding logic is not about making noise at the peak but about strategic positioning at the lows. While retail investors flee in fear, whales represented by Michael Saylor are quietly accumulating.

Data shows that despite recent record outflows of $4.5 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, long-term holders are moving against the trend. This week, Strategy added another 592 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to an astonishing 717,722 coins, accounting for over 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Moreover, on-chain data reveals a more solid bottom structure: during this recent price correction, over 400,000 Bitcoins were absorbed by whale addresses in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. This indicates that a substantial cost support zone has formed around the current $66,000 level. Saylor remains calm about this, believing that Strategy’s average cost basis has become irrelevant in the evolving market, as the company employs a debt-free equity swap strategy aimed at indefinite long-term holding. For true long-term believers, short-term fluctuations of 30% or even 50% are just the “cost of vitality” in the holding process.

29% Annualized Compound Growth: Friend or Foe of Time?

In a recent discussion, Saylor made a bold prediction: over the next 21 years, Bitcoin’s annualized return (ARR) could be around 29%. This figure challenges traditional financial perceptions, based on Bitcoin’s high utility as the “world’s only 24/7 asset.”

Saylor believes Bitcoin’s volatility is high because it has the broadest use case and the strongest gravitational pull, attracting global financial, political, and digital energies. For investors with a four- to seven-year or longer investment horizon, short-term volatility is insignificant. The current “despair valley,” in ten years’ hindsight, might just be a minor bump on the compounding curve. He points out that the strongest argument against Bitcoin is simply that it has not been around long enough (only 17 years), much like how people initially hesitated to fly in airplanes during the first decade after their invention. Over time, with clearer regulation and the traditional banking system beginning to offer low-interest credit against Bitcoin holdings, this volatility will be further encapsulated, transforming Bitcoin into a fixed-income asset attracting conservative retail investors (such as STRC digital credit products).

Conclusion

Standing at the February 2026 crossroads, Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal point. Saylor’s “despair valley” theory is not mere hype but a profound insight rooted in the history of technological development and monetary evolution. On the Gate trading platform, short-term bulls and bears continue their tug-of-war, with funding rates indicating ongoing bearish sentiment. But true value investors understand: from Apple to Bitcoin, history repeatedly proves that the most generous compounding gifts often start in the deepest despair. Navigating through the fog requires not precise short-term price predictions but unwavering faith in the long-term logic.