Bitcoin cycle patterns invalid? Peter Brandt interprets the 23-month bottom code and market outlook for 2026

Peter Brandt, a legendary chart analyst with over 50 years of trading experience, has long been a prominent voice in the Bitcoin market structure. Recently, a view suggesting that “Bitcoin hits a precise bottom 23 months after each all-time high (ATH) in every cycle” has sparked widespread discussion. This article reviews historical patterns based on Gate market data (as of February 25, 2026), and combines Brandt’s latest statements to analyze Bitcoin’s current position.

Core Trader Observation: The 23-Month Cycle Code

In late February 2026, a viewpoint from the trading community caught Peter Brandt’s attention. It pointed out that in every past Bitcoin market cycle, the bottom of the bear market has occurred exactly 23 months after the previous ATH.

Brandt shared this insight and unusually commented that “most crypto followers’ analysis I see is worse.” This does not mean Brandt fully accepts the simple conclusion of “bottom at 23 months,” but rather that he appreciates the rigorous review based on historical cycle regularities.

In Brandt’s analytical framework, he emphasizes the destruction of parabolic patterns and exponential decay theory. He has noted that as market size expands, Bitcoin’s cyclical volatility narrows—that is, the gains in each bull run decrease in multiple, and the retracement in bear markets also shrinks. This macro perspective provides context for the “23-month bottom” pattern: while the cycle timeline may still hold, price amplitudes are converging.

Historical Pattern Review: What Happens 23 Months After ATH?

To verify this pattern, we review past cycles using historical data. It’s important to note that these patterns are for technical reference only and do not guarantee future performance.

As shown, although the exact months vary between 21 and 24, the “second half of the year after ATH” has historically been a dense zone for bottom formation. This aligns well with halving effects and market sentiment shifting from extreme greed to extreme fear.

Current Position: Standing at the 23rd Month of the Cycle

Using Gate market data (as of February 25, 2026), we analyze the current market coordinates:

• Previous cycle high: Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025.
• Current date: February 25, 2026.
• Interval: From October 2025 to February 2026 is exactly within the critical 23-month window.
• Current price: Bitcoin is at $65,002.3, with a 24-hour change of +2.98%, a low of $62,501, and a high of $66,310.7.

Comparing this data within the historical context reveals key features:

• Timing overlap: We are indeed in a period historically prone to “final bottoms” or “bottom zones.”
• Price decay: From the ATH of $126,080 to current $65,002.3, the maximum retracement is about 48.4%. This is significantly lower than the 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022, consistent with Brandt’s “cycle decay” theory—that volatility diminishes as markets mature.

Is a Bottom Confirmed? On-Chain and Market Sentiment Evidence

Time cycles alone are insufficient to confirm a bottom. Cross-verification with on-chain data and market sentiment from Gate provides additional clues:

• Market sentiment index: Recently, crypto sentiment plunged into “extreme fear,” with peaks in searches for “Bitcoin is dead” and similar keywords. From behavioral finance, such extreme pessimism often marks bottoms.
• Institutional behavior: Despite record net outflows from the US spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2026 (totaling about $3.8–4.5 billion), long-term holders like Strategy have continued to buy around $60,000. This contrarian buying amid retail panic often signals the end of selling pressure.
• On-chain activity: Currently, active Bitcoin addresses are relatively low, often interpreted as “dormant user interest.” However, at cycle bottoms, low activity can also indicate capitulation of speculators and the foundation for a new phase.

The “Change” and “Constant” of Cycle Patterns

While the “23-month” rule appears precise, market structure has evolved significantly. Brandt and other analysts note the current cycle’s particularities:

• Macro environment interference: The market is influenced not only by halving cycles but also by Fed monetary policy, tariffs, and recession fears. This has increased correlation with high-beta assets like tech stocks, temporarily diverging from Bitcoin’s “digital gold” safe-haven role.
• Increased institutional influence: The launch of spot ETFs allows traditional institutions to enter via compliant channels, altering the previous retail FOMO-driven top and bottom formations. Asset allocation models may prolong and complicate bottom formation, rather than a quick V-shaped reversal.
• The real bottom may require “more time”: Brandt has hinted that the true bottom could form in the second half of 2026. This suggests that even if current levels are bottomish, the market may need months of sideways consolidation to absorb trapped positions and wait for macro liquidity to improve.

Conclusion: Respect the Pattern, Focus on Structure

Brandt’s latest repost reminds us that the macro symmetry based on four-year halving cycles remains valid. As of February 2026, Bitcoin is indeed in a historically significant low window.

However, market maturity is changing the volatility landscape: smaller retracements, longer bottoming processes, and more complex macro drivers characterize this cycle’s bottom. For investors focused on “Bitcoin cycle analysis,” rather than debating whether $65,000 is the exact “23-month bottom,” it’s more prudent to monitor on-chain whale movements, institutional flows, and stablecoin liquidity via Gate’s tools for forward-looking signals.

Historical patterns provide a navigation chart, but steering through current waters still depends on precise real-time judgment.