Everyone is celebrating as Bitcoin and its followers surge upward, creating a lively scene. But when you open the ZEC candlestick chart, you probably feel a chill—this thing is actually falling.

What does it mean when “others are eating meat but I can’t even drink the soup”? That’s it.

The market is rising, but it’s not moving up, which already indicates a problem. What about trading volume? The volume has shrunk to that extent, with MA5 and MA10 both pressing down, where’s the money to push it higher? Some say they see inflows—44,000 USD in an hour—this splash in a downtrend is just big players throwing some pocket change; what kind of wave can that create? Don’t forget, there are layers of resistance from MA7, MA25, and MA99, especially that MA99 at $389, while the current price is only $238. That gap isn’t something you can close in a day or two.

On the technical side, MACD does look like it’s about to form a golden cross, with DIF trending upward and the red bars appearing. Short-term traders might think there’s hope. But if you look closely, both DIF and DEA are still below the zero line—this is a bearish golden cross, a sign of a weak rebound. In a downtrend channel, such a cross often traps traders into a false hope, making them the last to buy in.

Looking at the so-called “double bottom” pattern, honestly, on the daily chart, it’s a stretch to call it that. Without volume at the bottom, even a pretty pattern is meaningless. Moreover, what is ZEC? Once the king of privacy coins, now? The privacy coin sector itself is becoming increasingly sensitive, with regulatory sticks ready to fall at any moment. The US, Europe, Japan, South Korea—all watching. Who dares to openly manipulate in this environment?

Arthur Hayes said he’s holding a position—so what? Can whales play the same game as retail investors? Maybe they’re adjusting their holdings, or following a long-term logic, or just mentioning it casually. When they dump, can you get out in time?

And that so-called “buying momentum at 91%”—sounds impressive, but you have to consider the timeframe. Hours of data aren’t even enough to create a ripple in the market. Sentiment changes faster than the weather—today 91% buy, tomorrow it could be 91% sell.

Ultimately, altcoins like ZEC have no real value backing them. Unlike Bitcoin, which has consensus, hashing power, and global liquidity. The narrative of privacy coins is increasingly risky in today’s tightening regulatory environment. Governments worldwide are pushing anti-money laundering and anti-terror financing measures. Privacy coins are natural targets. Do you expect them to break out independently in this environment? Not likely.

So don’t be misled by scattered data and emotions. When the market rises, it falls—that’s the best answer. Volume isn’t coming in, moving averages are pressing down, policy risks loom overhead. This thing is likely to drift downward steadily, with occasional rebounds just to trap more people.