Taiwan Gold Price Trend: A 10-Year Review | From the Bottom to New Highs, When Will the Bull Market End?

Over the past decade, Taiwanese investors have watched gold soar from below $1,300 to a new high of over $5,000 this year. What secrets are hidden behind this gold trend in Taiwan? Will gold prices continue to rise, or are they already near the top? Let’s start with data from the last ten years to uncover the truth behind this gold feast.

Must-Read for Taiwanese Investors | Gold Prices Doubling in 10 Years — What’s Happening?

From 2016 to 2026, the ten-year trend chart of gold in Taiwan is very clear—a long-term upward trend from the bottom.

Specifically: in 2019, gold hit a low of about $1,200 per ounce, and by early 2026, it had firmly surpassed $5,100 per ounce, with a growth of over 300% in ten years. Even more astonishing, in the past two years (early 2024 to 2026), the increase has already exceeded 150%, far surpassing stocks and bonds during the same period.

Behind this nonlinear rise are three driving forces: the global de-dollarization wave, central banks’ frantic gold reserve purchases, and ongoing geopolitical turmoil. For Taiwanese investors, this isn’t just a numbers game but a real asset allocation opportunity.

But here’s a key question: does the past decade of gold trends in Taiwan predict the future?

Decoding Three Bull Market Cycles | Why Does Gold Always Rise During Crises?

Looking back over more than 50 years of global gold trends, three distinct bull market periods have emerged. Understanding these three cycles is almost like cracking the code of future gold movements.

First Cycle: 1971–1980 Credit Collapse Period (Price up 24x)

Going back to 1971, U.S. President Nixon announced the end of the dollar’s gold convertibility, causing the Bretton Woods system to collapse instantly. Gold was freed from the fixed $35/ounce price, and the era of market-based pricing began.

People panicked—if the dollar no longer backed by gold, what was it worth? Gold skyrocketed from $35 to $850. Then came oil crises, the Iranian Revolution, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan—each fueling a crisis of confidence in the dollar. It wasn’t until 1980, when the Fed aggressively raised interest rates (over 20%), that the rally paused.

The core logic of this bull market was simple: credit crisis + loose monetary policy = massive gold rally.

Second Cycle: 2001–2011 Low-Interest Frenzy (Price up 7.6x)

In 2001, the dot-com bubble burst, followed by the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To respond to crises and the long-term war on terror, the U.S. cut interest rates, issued debt, and implemented QE (quantitative easing). These policies boosted housing prices but also laid the groundwork for the 2008 financial crisis.

After the crisis, the Fed launched even more aggressive QE, and gold surged. From a low of $250 in 2001 to a peak of $1,921 in September 2011, the ten-year increase exceeded 700%. But as the EU intervened to rescue markets and the Fed ended QE, gold entered a long 8-year bear market, dropping over 45%.

Third Cycle: 2019–Present Safe-Haven Rally (Price up over 300%)

This is the cycle most familiar to Taiwanese investors. Starting from a low of $1,200 in 2019, gold has surpassed $5,000 by early 2026. The drivers include: global de-dollarization, renewed U.S. QE, Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions, and U.S. tariffs creating uncertainty.

Especially from 2024 onward, escalating Middle East tensions, volatile global stock markets, and a weakening dollar index have combined to push gold to record highs.

Common Rules of Gold Bull Markets | Why Does Gold Rise During Crises?

Careful observation of these three bull markets reveals three rules Taiwanese investors should remember:

Rule 1: The start of every bull market is always a credit crisis

The end of the gold standard in 1971, the low-interest rescue in 2001, and the global de-dollarization in 2019—all began with a collapse in trust in the dollar or the system. When confidence in paper money and financial systems erodes, gold becomes the last fortress.

Rule 2: Bull markets have three stages—slow rise, acceleration, overheating

Initially, the market lacks consensus, and prices slowly bottom out; mid-stage crises catalyze rapid capital inflows; late-stage, speculators flock in, signaling bubbles. Each cycle lasts about 8–10 years, with gains ranging from 7 to 24 times.

Rule 3: Bull markets end with aggressive tightening

1980’s Fed rate hikes, 2011 QE ending—whenever central banks tighten, the good days for gold end. However, retracements of 20–30% are common, as long as key supports like the 200-month moving average hold, the bull trend isn’t over.

But here’s a key difference in this cycle.

Global government debt levels are astronomical, and central banks can’t raise interest rates sharply without triggering debt crises. This suggests traditional tightening cycles may be unlikely. Instead, gold might oscillate at high levels for several years, forming a “high plateau.” The true end signal may only come when a new, more credible global monetary and credit system emerges.

How Should Taiwanese Investors Approach Gold? | Swing Trading vs. Long-Term Holding — Who Wins?

This is the most pressing question for Taiwanese investors: Should gold be bought and held long-term, or traded actively in swings?

First, look at returns: Is gold really better than stocks?

Over the past 50 years, gold has increased 120 times, while the Dow Jones rose from 900 to 46,000 points—about 51 times. At first glance, gold seems more impressive, but there’s a trap—from 1980 to 2000, gold hovered between $200–$300 for 20 years, and investors saw little to no gains.

If you bought gold at the peak of $850 in 1980, you wouldn’t break even until 2001—wasted two decades. Meanwhile, stock investors had already made substantial gains.

The harsh conclusion: How many 20-year periods do we have?

That’s why I believe: Gold is a good investment tool, but it’s better suited for swing trading, not long-term buy-and-hold.

Buy during bull phases, hold or short during bear markets—this maximizes gains. If you insist on holding long-term, be prepared for many years of stagnation.

Gold Investment Tools for Taiwanese Investors

Considering practical needs, there are five main ways to invest in gold:

1. Physical Gold (bars, jewelry)

Advantages: privacy, can wear as jewelry; disadvantages: inconvenient trading, high storage costs. Not ideal for frequent swing trading.

2. Gold Certificates (Gold Passbooks)

Similar to early dollar passbooks, representing gold custody. Advantages: portable; disadvantages: no interest, large bid-ask spreads. Suitable for very long-term investors.

3. Gold ETFs

More liquid than certificates, traded on stock markets. Reflects holdings in ounces of gold, but management fees apply, and if gold prices stagnate, value erodes slowly.

4. Gold Futures

Most common for retail traders, offering leverage to amplify gains and allowing both long and short positions. Margin trading with low costs. Great for short-term swing traders.

5. Gold CFDs (Contracts for Difference)

If I had to pick the most suitable for Taiwanese retail investors, it’s CFDs. Reasons:

• Flexible trading hours: 24/7 trading, no market hours restrictions
• Low minimum deposit: Some platforms require only $50 USD to open an account, with leverage up to 1:100
• Smallest trade size: 0.01 lots, high capital efficiency
• Supports both directions: Long (buy) and short (sell)

For example, on Mitrade, search for XAUUSD (gold vs. USD), go long when bullish, short when bearish, with execution times under 0.01 seconds, and set stop-loss/take-profit easily. The platform supports TWD deposits and 24-hour Chinese customer service, making it especially suitable for Taiwanese investors.

Golden Swing Trading Rules

When timing the cycle correctly, gold’s returns far surpass bonds and stocks. The key is to identify two points:

• When a bull trend begins, buy to go long
• When risks emerge, and sharp declines happen, go short

If you can master these two points, a single cycle can yield over 5x returns. But misjudging the timing could mean years of inactivity.

Gold vs. Stocks vs. Bonds | Asset Allocation for Taiwanese Investors

Different assets generate returns from entirely different sources; it’s crucial to understand:

Gold’s returns come from “price differences”
No interest, so timing is everything. Suitable for swing trading during trending periods, not for fixed income.

Bonds’ returns come from “interest payments”
The core is to keep increasing holdings to benefit from compound interest, also considering central bank policies. Easiest to manage.

Stocks’ returns come from “corporate growth”
Requires selecting good companies, long-term holding, and tolerating volatility. The most complex, with many variables.

Looking at historical returns:

• Past 50 years: gold performed best
• Past 30 years: stocks > gold > bonds
• Last two years: gold performed best

So, there’s no absolute winner—only the best choice at the moment.

The best approach for Taiwanese investors is: allocate stocks during economic growth, and shift to gold during downturns.

A more stable method is to build a “stock-bond-gold triangle” asset allocation:

• In good times: stocks profit, gold and bonds are less favored
• In downturns: stocks fall, gold’s safe-haven and bonds’ fixed income become valuable
• In uncertain times: unexpected events like war, inflation, or rate hikes can occur anytime; holding some gold can offset stock volatility

Based on personal risk tolerance, allocation could be:

• Conservative: 40% stocks + 45% bonds + 15% gold
• Balanced: 50% stocks + 30% bonds + 20% gold
• Aggressive: 60% stocks + 20% bonds + 20% gold

Outlook for Taiwan’s Gold Trend | What Will the Next Decade Look Like?

Returning to the initial question: can the past decade’s Taiwan gold trend predict the future?

The answer: Yes, but not as a simple straight line upward.

Given the current macro environment:

• Ongoing geopolitical tensions
• Rising U.S. policy uncertainty
• Central banks’ limited room to raise rates
• Persistent inflation

Gold is likely to enter a “high plateau” phase, oscillating between $4,500 and $6,000 for many years. What does this mean?

For swing traders, it’s paradise—ample volatility to profit from.
For long-term holders, it’s a nightmare—potentially many years of sideways movement.

Finally, a key rule: although gold will experience bear markets, each low point is higher than the previous one. This reflects rising costs of gold extraction, providing a safety margin for long-term investors.

For Taiwanese investors, rather than obsessing over whether gold will rise or fall, it’s better to seize current market opportunities with suitable tools, positions, and timing to participate in this gold wave’s swing trading feast.