Is Pfizer (PFE) Offering Value After Mixed Multi Year Share Price Performance

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 25, 2026 at 11:11 AM GMT+9 6 min read

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If you are wondering whether Pfizer's current share price offers value or just noise, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about the stock.

Pfizer's recent share price reflects mixed returns, with a 0.8% decline over the last 7 days, gains of 5.8% over 30 days and 7.8% year to date, and longer term returns of 8.9% over 1 year, a 19.8% decline over 3 years, and 4.0% over 5 years.

Recent headlines around Pfizer have focused on the company reshaping its portfolio and pipeline, as well as investor debate about how much value is already reflected in the share price. This context helps explain why the stock has seen both shorter term gains and periods of weaker multi year returns.

On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, Pfizer currently scores 4 out of 6. Next we will look at how different methods such as DCF, multiples and peer comparisons line up, before closing with a more rounded way to think about what the stock might be worth.

Find out why Pfizer’s 8.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Pfizer Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A DCF model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting future cash flows and then discounting those back to today, resulting in a single present value figure to compare with the share price.

For Pfizer, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from last twelve months free cash flow of about $9.8b. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for the next few years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates further to build a ten-year path. By 2035, projected free cash flow is $16.9b, with each future year discounted back to today using a required return to shareholders.

Adding those discounted cash flows and a terminal value produces an estimated intrinsic value of about $65.01 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies a 58.3% discount. The model interprets this as the stock trading well below its DCF estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Pfizer is undervalued by 58.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

PFE Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Pfizer.

Approach 2: Pfizer Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Pfizer, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. What counts as a normal or fair P/E tends to rise when investors expect stronger earnings growth or see lower risk, and to be lower when growth expectations are modest or risks feel higher.

Story Continues  

Pfizer currently trades on a P/E of 19.92x. That is very close to the Pharmaceuticals industry average of 19.86x and slightly below the peer group average of 20.74x, so on simple comparisons the valuation sits around the middle of the pack. Simply Wall St then goes a step further with its Fair Ratio, which for Pfizer is 24.63x.

The Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what Pfizer’s P/E might be given its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks. Because it blends these factors, it can be more informative than a straight comparison with peers or the sector, which may have different growth and risk characteristics. With Pfizer’s current P/E of 19.92x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 24.63x, this framework points to the shares trading below that Fair Value P/E.

Result: UNDERVALUED

NYSE:PFE P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Pfizer Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you turn your view of Pfizer into a clear story that connects its business, a forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and a Fair Value you can compare with the current price. This is all inside an accessible tool on the Community page that updates when new news or earnings arrive. It can look very different from one investor to another. For example, one Pfizer Narrative currently anchors on a Fair Value of about US$23 per share, while another sits closer to US$35, reflecting different assumptions about how quickly the company handles loss of exclusivity, obesity investments and its wider pipeline.

For Pfizer, here are previews of two leading Pfizer Narratives to make comparison easier for you:

🐂 Pfizer Bull Case

Fair value in this Narrative: US$29.08 per share

Implied discount to this fair value versus the last close of US$27.14: about 6.7% undervalued

Revenue growth assumption: 2.93% annual decline

Analysts backing this view see obesity, oncology and other late stage therapies as key long run growth drivers, supported by portfolio reshaping and business development.

The Narrative assumes earnings rise to US$12.8b by around 2028, with profit margins lifting from 16.8% to 21.5% and the shares valued on a future P/E of 15.7x.

Risks focus on regulation, pricing, patent expiries and rising global competition, but the analyst group still lands on a consensus price target of about US$28.86 that sits above the current share price.

🐻 Pfizer Bear Case

Fair value in this Narrative: US$23.00 per share

Implied premium to this fair value versus the last close of US$27.14: about 18.0% overvalued

Revenue growth assumption: 6.76% annual decline

This more cautious view leans on drug pricing pressure, loss of exclusivity on key products and tougher regulation as headwinds for revenue and margins.

The Narrative assumes earnings reach about US$11.8b by 2028, with profit margins rising to 21.0% but revenue shrinking faster and the shares valued on a future P/E of 14.2x.

On these inputs the fair value sits at US$23.00 per share, close to the lowest analyst targets, and only slightly below the recent share price in the underlying bearish model.

Seeing both Narratives side by side can help you decide which set of assumptions feels closer to how you see Pfizer’s pipeline, pricing risks and long term earnings power.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Do you think there’s more to the story for Pfizer? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:PFE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include PFE.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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